Red Train Blog

Ramblings to the left

The Red Train Blog is a left leaning politics blog, which mainly focuses on British politics and is written by two socialists. We are Labour Party members, for now, and are concerned about issues such as inequality, nationalisation, housing, the NHS and peace. What you will find here is a discussion of issues that affect the Labour Party, the wider left and politics as a whole.

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Keir_Starmer.jpg

Where is Labour going?

September 30, 2021 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

A barman recently asked me, whilst I was waiting for my pint of locally sourced artisanal craft beer, to name an aspect of politics where Labour have a policy and the Tories don’t have a vaguely similar one.

‘There must be loads,’ I said and then struggled to name one.

Spending more on the police? Both sides want to do that. Tackling regional inequality? Everyone is into levelling up. Averting an environmental disaster? Although the parties differ on the details, their positions are superficially the same. Fixing the housing crisis so that young people can afford somewhere to live? ‘Nobody wants to do that,’ the barman said, shaking his head.

So, what does Labour stand for now that the Tories are for spending money and creating jobs north of the Watford Gap? As we just had Labour conference it’s worth reflecting on this. The answer is that no one knows. This is one reason why Labour is too busy fighting itself. The conflict, or High Conflict as I dubbed it recently, is over what the party should stand for. This is a crucial and necessary debate. It’s how we escape the quagmire of no one really knowing what the point in Labour is.

Starmer’s values 

Sir Keith “any other leader would be 20 points ahead” Starmer (he’s currently eight points behind) became Labour leader because the members liked what he was selling. His pitch was Jeremy Corbyn’s values with the competence and polish of someone who’s run an important, prestigious government agency in the past. This was backed up with 10 pledges, which prompted me to choose Starmer as my second choice leadership candidate.

Starmer wasn’t my first choice, but I was willing to accept some moderation, mainly in tone, to achieve electoral breakthrough and a government with core-principals I could get behind.

I now see that I have been thoroughly wallet inspected and feel a complete fool when I look at Labour and see very little of the competence that we were promised. The values behind this opposition are murky at best. They can’t even do a convincing job of being outraged at this government’s massive corruption. Starmer has also gone back on several of the ten pledges - this week he said he didn’t support common ownership of energy utilities - so there goes those values that people were voting for.

The return of the Prince of Darkness

“Do you know who I think of when someone says Labour values? Peter Mandelson,” said no one ever. Despite this, disgraced former cabinet member Peter Mandelson, a person some people unironically refer to as the “Prince of Darkness,” has found himself at the heart of this opposition.

New Labour’s heyday was 20 years ago and I can’t think what he has to offer now beyond 90s nostalgia, the vague sheen of electability (that will fool absolutely no one) and a less than confident sign that “serious” Labour is back, because nothing says serious like digging up someone from the New Labour era and then standing next to them in the hope that if the voters squint in just the right way Starmer will look like a young Tony Blair.

It shows Starmer’s desperation and lack of ideas if he’s turning to people who were, whatever your view of their politics, doing successful opposition politics the better part of 30 years ago. Can you imagine another industry where you would hire a consultant whose frame of reference is this far out of date?

“Nowhere to go”

It’s worth remembering that the seat that Mandelson once held, Hartlepool, is now a Tory seat. Mandelson once said that the working-class vote have “got nowhere to go” when asked about New Labour chasing middle-class Labour/Tory swing voters and saying little or nothing to the communities that had been voting Labour for years. Well, they found somewhere else to go.

Mandelson and Starmer clearly don’t have a vision that can win these voters back and they have no idea of how to find new voters. Instead, they would rather continue the Labour naval gazing by having a fight over how the leader is chosen, instead of engaging with literally any voters.

The party could take up the environment as a cause, which might convince younger voters (aka the future of the party) who are considering supporting the Greens to give Labour another chance, but to do this Starmer needs to find credibility or conviction. The only thing he says with any real conviction is that no one likes Labour; which he says over and over, thus making it more true.

Negative vision

The most concrete thing that can be said about Starmer’s vision for Labour is that he thinks that Labour is not a party for socialists, radicals, environmentalists or BLM supporters; unless they are very quiet and don’t ask for things that might upset little Englanders who voted for Brexit and Boris Johnson.

The Labour leadership have shown complete contempt for, and an unwillingness to engage with, those on the left of the party, which means the conflict/High Conflict will rumble on. This vision of Labour is a negative vision, defining Labour by what it’s not rather than what it is. A negative vision is all that the current leadership has. They have no answer to who Labour is for.

Saying Labour is not for the sort of people who voted for us in the last election, it’s for the people who didn’t, does make some sense. Labour is a party that needs to win more votes to be in government. However, when you look at how Labour is polling amongst the people who didn’t vote for it you have to ask yourself: what is going on? This brings me back to the barman in the craft beer micropub, pointing out that the Tories are offering these voters what they want and Labour has nothing special to offer them.

Hollow platitudes and bad vibes

If you asked Starmer “who is Labour for?” he would probably say “everyone”. Almost everyone would agree that Labour being a big broad tent is good and the party should welcome everyone and look out for everyone. However, this is how most parties describe themselves. The Tories say they’re looking out for everyone’s best interest, then raise taxes on working age people to protect the property wealth of and pay for the social care of Boomers. The Labour leadership’s vision needs to be more than hollow platitudes and giving off bad vibes to the people who have kept voting for them during these wilderness years.

At the rate the party is going we won’t put a dent in the Tory’s majority. Everyone knows this. But still we go through the motions, hoping the Tories will finally do something so bad that the voters decide they don’t want them in power. Although they’re sitting pretty after over 120,000 died from a disease that the Tories did too little too late to contain, so I’m not sure what else it will take.

Starmer doesn’t have an answer to “what is Labour for?” beyond “it’s not for socialists”. Labour also doesn’t have a policy that the Tories don’t also have a similar policy on and thus the party is completely without vision. Conflict within the Party is inevitable unless Labour has a vision for its future that all its members can believe in. Defeat at the next election is certain unless Labour can do better.

"File:Official portrait of Keir Starmer crop 1.jpg" by Chris McAndrew is licensed under CC BY 3.0

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The civil war in Labour has become a High Conflict. How do we get out of it?

August 17, 2021 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

It will be news to exactly no-one that there is a conflict within the Labour Party. However, I believe it would be better described as a High Conflict. What does that mean, I hear you ask? Well dear reader, a High Conflict is where the conflict itself is the reason why two groups are fighting. Sound familiar?

Conflict is when you fight to achieve something. Better rights for women or ethnic minorities, a shorter working week, the return of looted artwork, or an end to the use of fossil fuels. High Conflict is conflict for the sake of conflict. It’s not when you’re fighting to achieve something, it’s when you’re fighting to stop the other side winning. This is what the Labour Party has become. It’s like a dysfunctional marriage, where the couple is only together because they can’t afford to move out (that’s the electoral system in this tortured analogy).

The book

High Conflict is the subject of Amanda Ripley’s book High Conflict: Why We Get Trapped and How We Get Out. Her book focuses on America, but it perfectly sums up the sorry state of the Labour Party.

Ripley describes many different High Conflicts: in non-partisan local politics, between liberals and conservatives, in marriages, families, companies, religious communities and even between gangs. High Conflict can trap anyone or any group. It’s destructive, achieves little and is difficult to escape.

From reading Ripley’s book, I saw that the factions within Labour exhibit many of the signs of High Conflict. Ripley uses the metaphor of a tarpit to show how difficult it is to escape High Conflict and how fighting just makes it worse. Labour is stuck in a tarpit right now and it won’t stand a chance of getting into government unless it can find a way out.

Fire starters

There are several fire starters for High Conflict that Ripley identifies in her book, three of which are present in the Labour Party. They are group identities, humiliation and conflict entrepreneurs.

Group identities are the easiest to spot. The ongoing civil war doesn’t neatly break into two camps, but there are plenty of polarising divisions around which group identities are built, such as pro-Corbyn vs Corbyn-skeptic, socialist vs social democrat, centrist vs left or Momentum vs Progress. The presence of group identities gives people a flag to rally around for the High Conflict and prevents individuals from empathising with their opponents.

Humiliation is also easy to spot. Almost everyone in Labour believes that their faction is being ignored or shut out. Some feel humiliated because Jeremy Corbyn was chucked out, or because Peter Mandelson was brought in, or because Angela Rayner was demoted, or because Jess Phillips isn’t in the cabinet, or because the leadership isn’t sufficiently pro-EU, or because the leadership isn’t talking enough about “traditional Labour voters” or … you get the idea. I could keep writing this list until the next election.

Conflict entrepreneurs

Another important fact that Ripley identifies in starting and prolonging High Conflict are conflict entrepreneurs. Conflict entrepreneurs are people who create High Conflict because it benefits themselves. See the film Marriage Story for examples of how the American divorce-industrial complex is filled with conflict entrepreneurs who turn simple resolvable conflicts into High Conflicts at great financial gain to themselves.

The conflict entrepreneurs in Labour are the people who get attention, social media followers, blog views and, ultimately, power and money from intensifying the High Conflict in Labour. Politics is a field that’s rife with conflict entrepreneurs; that politician you hate who you’re thinking of right now is probably one. Conflict entrepreneurs don’t campaign to win anything, they just stir up conflict so that people pay attention to them (and in the attention economy, attention is money and power).

I’m not going to use this space to accuse anyone from profiting from the High Conflict that has engulfed Labour. Conflict entrepreneurs may not even know they are conflict entrepreneurs, and their followers certainly don’t believe they are; unless they find all this internecine fighting entertaining, like the world’s most bureaucratic soap opera. What I am asking you to do is to think about a politician or journalist’s motivation. Ask yourself: would this person’s livelihood be destroyed if they got what they claim they want?

American hyper-partisan conflict entrepreneurs

For a concrete example of a conflict entrepreneur, we will travel across the pond to America where the political High Conflict is worse than here and there’s big money to be made from being a conflict entrepreneur. Ben Shapiro - a man whose purpose in life is to whip up conservative hatred for liberals and is beloved by the people who confuse the ability to be rude to college students as being a good orator - is an obvious example of an American hyper-partisan conflict entrepreneur.

Shapiro is a frequent face on many conservative media outlets and makes money writing books with titles such as (deep breath for these) Bullies: How the Left's Culture of Fear and Intimidation Silences Americans and How to Debate Leftists and Destroy Them: 11 Rules for Winning the Argument. The worst thing that could happen to Shapiro is for him to get what he wants: the destruction of liberalism and the total domination of conservatives. This is a clear sign of a conflict entrepreneur.

The disaster of getting what you want

If everyone in the USA became a conservative, Shapiro would have nothing to rail against and have no means of getting attention or selling books and tickets to his campus speaking tours, where the terminally self-satisfied can watch a professional pundit and trained media personality be publicly rude to teenaged college students and then tell themselves that this makes conservatives right and liberals dumb.

All Shapiro does is make Americans hate each other more and further their High Conflict, whilst getting fame, money and the respect of angry people who like to take selfies in their car wearing trucker hats. When looking at Labour figures, and this is especially important for Labour figures you agree with, ask yourself: what would happen if they won? Would the end of Labour’s forever war mean they had no platform anymore? Are they fighting for a principal or just stirring up conflict to get attention?

The route out of High Conflict

Okay, so Labour is stuck in High Conflict. How do we get out of it? To escape from High Conflict, Ripley says, a route out is essential. So, if Labour wants to escape the tarpit of High Conflict then the various factions will need to start engaging with each other instead of fighting each other.

Ripley’s book offers many examples of how people have exited High Conflict, from violent gang feuds to America’s unending culture war. Most of them involve having some perspective on a High Conflict, taking a step back, engaging with the other side and asking difficult questions of yourself. Not easy when you’re in the middle of a conflict, but it's essential to stop the endless cycles of High Conflict.

The end of the Labour forever war

If Labour cannot end the High Conflict that has engulfed the party, then it won’t be able to win an election again. High Conflict ensures that Labour is only talking to Labour, and this puts voters off. Labour needs to engage with the electorate - what do they want? what does Labour want to offer them? - but Labour can only do that when it’s not endlessly talking to itself about itself.

Recognising that Labour has become engulfed in High Conflict is the first step to escaping from High Conflict. The route out of the tarpit is long, difficult and probably painful, but what is the alternative? Does anyone really think they can win the Labour civil war? Surely, it’s better to see it as what it is, a forever war that cannot be won and will ultimately destroy the party.

However, there is an added complication to all this. Ripley says in her book that conflict, as opposed to High Conflict, is good and healthy. It’s how we resolve problems and make progress. The divisions in the Labour Party are not all High Conflict, there is conflict mixed up with the High Conflict. There’s lot of problems Labour is facing, and both the conflict and High Conflict is over the solution to these issues. The conflict over what the Labour Party should be or do, is one I will explore in the next blog post.

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I don’t feel patriotic, but Labour needs to appeal to more than just people like me

June 15, 2021 by Alastair J R Ball in Political narratives, The crisis in Labour

As a society we have spent a lot of time writing about Labour’s woes. As a political blogger all I have done is added to the pages and pages written about how Brexit has realigned politics so that the places that solidly voted Labour for a century are now electing Tories. In these blogs, newspaper articles, Twitter threads and pub discussions one word comes up again and again: “patriotism”.  

For many, the underlying cause of Labour’s woes in places from Workington to Hartlepool is that it’s not seen as patriotic. Or that the party is controlled by middle-class, craft beer drinking, pansexual, students who care more about Palestine than Britain, and sneer at anyone with an England flag in their window as if they were some kind of subspecies of semi-intelligent human. 

Rebecca Long-Bailey attempted to use the idea of progressive patriotism to launch her bid for Labour leader. The idea was poorly received amongst her supporters. At the time, I wrote a blog that was critical of progressive patriotism, but now I think I should have been more open to the idea.

The reason that Labour isn’t seen as patriotic is not just because the radical left controlled the party for four and a bit years. Getting rid of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader hasn’t fixed Labour’s patriotism problem. Former leader Ed Miliband was also plagued by patriotism problems, most notably when shadow minister Emily Thornbury was accused of insulting the England flag. It’s still dogging Keir Starmer as, in May this year, the idea that Labour isn’t patriotic enough was back in the discourse.

Disliking patriotism

When writing these words, I’m imagining that I’m talking to people whose views are like mine. People who don’t consider themselves to be patriotic, or even … whisper it … people who consider patriotism to be a bad thing. A fellow middle-class leftie once said to me that “all patriotism has ever done is get working-class people to kill each other”. It’s not an over generalisation to say that, in the circles I move in, this is widely accepted.

You might firmly believe that patriotism is just socially acceptable racism, or that patriotism has been used throughout history to convince the poor of the world to throw themselves into a meat grinder with other poor people who follow a different flag, so that kings or bankers can continue ruling over the pile of bones that’s left behind. In that case I probably can’t change your mind, so you might want to skip the rest.

My key point is: I don’t think of myself as patriotic, but I understand that lots of people do consider themselves to be patriotic and these people aren’t necessarily regressive nationalists. I want Labour to appeal to more than just people like me. One thing the last few years have shown is most people (even on the far-left) have different opinions to me, so Labour needs to broaden its reach from just me to win.

I’m not saying that the left should embrace patriotism because it’s popular with voters. Certainly, something being popular and being right are not the same thing. However, my views on patriotism have changed in the last couple of years. I don’t feel any more patriotic than I once did, but I do feel Labour needs to, at least, appear to not be against patriotism.

Why patriotism matters

Already, I can hear muttering at the back that I have gone “Blue Labour” or that I’m starting down the road that led to Michael Foot supporters singing the praises of Tony Blair. Again, if you think patriotism is the same as racism, or that any acknowledgement of patriotism is inherently right-wing, then I’ll save you a few minutes and tell you now that you won’t agree with the below. However, if you’ll listen to me, I’ll set out the case as to why Labour should be a little bit patriotic.

The 2019 election result shows that Labour needs to win more seats to be in power, and while Scotland is out of the picture, Labour must win the places there Jeremy Corbyn’s perceived lack of patriotism was a drag on the Labour ticket.

67% percent of voters

Patriotism is important to a great number of voters. “Some 67 percent of Britons describe themselves as ‘very’ or ‘slightly’ patriotic,” according to an article by Helen Lewis in The Atlantic.

 Again, you could say that Labour needs to break with its 120 year history and find a new voter coalition that’s completely different to the old one (I will address this idea in a future blog post). However, if we rule out Labour completely changing politics, then the party will have to find something to say about patriotism.

There has been a lot of talk of Labour needing a narrative to unite its disparate voter coalition, so as a public transport-using metropolitan, I find it hard to ask this question: how does Labour win over people who love the flag?

Go UKIP or go home

What is key to the idea of how patriotic Labour should be is what I would call “light touch patriotism” or something subtler than the types of flag waving we usually see from politicians. Light touch patriotism doesn’t need to be in your face or loud, but it is present. On the left, there is a perception that to be seen as patriotic Labour has to go UKIP or go home. This is an exaggeration.

We fall into the trap of thinking that all patriotism is the UKIP style of angry, belligerent nationalism that gets so much attention because it’s so loud. Most people think of patriotism as “I love my country” but UKIP style patriotism is “I want my country to dominate other countries”. That’s the difference between most patriots and regressive nationalists.

UKIP patriotism is singing Rule Britannia with enough gusto to create a gale. It’s boasting about the power of the British Empire. It’s bringing up the Second World War over and over again. This isn’t love for your country. It’s fanaticism. It’s the way that children love football teams: with an undying belief in their side’s complete superiority to all others.

The alienating effect of UKIP style patriotism

That’s not what’s needed to win elections. In fact, UKIP patriotism is alienating to a lot of people, even those who consider themselves to be patriotic. One of the reasons why Leave won the Brexit referendum is that they recognised that people who were fanatical about their country would always vote for Brexit, and that they needed a softer message to appeal to people put off by chest-thumping patriotism.

This is what led to Brexit being sold as a vote for sovereignty and the NHS, and not a vote to take a dump on the Champs-Élysées and then wipe our arse with a 100 Euro note. Labour could learn a lot from how the Leave campaign used patriotism. I.e., ignore the purple-faced, flag underpants-wearing blowhards as they will never vote Labour, concentrate on how patriotism fits into a narrative with the things swing voters want: stability, control over their lives, a future for their children and communities.

Light touch patriotism

Light touch patriotism is not just the milder version of fanatical patriotism, it’s in opposition to it. It can be critical of the country at the same time as not saying that everything about Britain is so filled with toxicity that the entire national project should be condemned faster than a 1970s plastic factory still filled with poisonous goo.

Crucially, light touch patriotism can be combined with a radical economic message. It says: the country we love is ill and needs change. As with a recently divorced dad, who has hit the Johnnie Walker, Chinese buffet and angry calls to LBC a bit too hard since things went downhill, the way to help someone you love can be a radical intervention that holds back no criticism of how shitty they behaved in that trip to Costa del Sol. To save the country we love we need radical change to the state, the economy and our communities so that we can one day feel better about our lives.

The point of light touch patriotism is to reassure voters that Labour doesn’t hate the country, but wants to fix its problems. Like an abusive partner, the right uses love of the country as an excuse to do terrible things to it. They think love makes them exempt from criticism. Light touch patriotism should be a vision of patriotism that younger, more radical people in cities can get behind. It’s patriotism for people who aren’t Abbot Ale glugging, beetroot-coloured Boomers shouting at women Labour MPs on Question Time.

Inclusive and not exclusive

Light touch patriotism needs to appeal to people’s hopes and not their fears. Too often patriotism appeals to fears. It unites the people of the country by reducing us to our lowest common dementor: i.e. our hates and fears. Light touch patriotism can show how we are connected through the higher ideals of tolerance and fairness that (almost) everyone can agree with.

Light touch patriotism can include acknowledging what was wrong about the British Empire and celebrating multicultural Britain. It’s more about the Chartists than Rule Britannia. It’s Mo Farah and Jessica Ennis. Above all, it’s inclusive, not exclusive. What we all have in common is that we shared these small, rainy, inhospitable and stunningly beautiful few islands. We can live together or we can die alone.

Angry patriots

When I suggest light touch patriotism to other people on the left, I am confronted with a counter argument that it’s this view of patriotism - sensible, inclusive and critical of the country where it needs to be - that the people who have stopped voting Labour are rebelling against. People on the left argue that Mo Farah won’t be seen as an authentic symbol of Britain next to Nigel Farage.

I don’t think this is an accurate representation of the voters that Labour needs to win over. There are certainly some loud people - we have all seen them in the Question Time audience, on Twitter or even writing in national publications - who scoff at the idea that patriotism needs to be inclusive and would call light touch patriotism “metropolitan, elite, PC, woke, nonsense”. I’m not saying that these people don’t exist, but they are not representative of the people who consider themselves to be patriotic.

67% of the country doesn’t think that Nigel Farage is the embodiment of patriotism. Labour doesn’t need to convince everyone who wolfs down everything that Brendan O'Neill writes, or the people who go on Question Time to yell about “woke PC culture” until they turn the colour of a pint of Ruddles Best, that they are patriotic. Most of these aging boomers will never vote Labour anyway as they own their own homes and the Tories have protected their pensions.

Appealing to people who aren’t like me

Labour only needs to convince younger and middle-aged people who are struggling with bad housing, rising costs of living, low pay, long waits at the GP and underfunded schools that they love this country to win their vote. A little reassurance, coupled with a message of radical economic change can help Labour win back the seats that have been drifting away since the 2005 election.

In the past I have written in scorn about progressive patriotism, or light touch patriotism as I am calling it now, but Labour needs to think about how patriotism fits into the story it wants to tell about how the country will be better under a Labour government if it is to win back the support it has lost. I don’t feel particularly patriotic, and my goals for a Labour a government concern radical policy, but that doesn’t mean Labour shouldn’t seek to appeal to patriotic voters or that the two can’t be combined.

If the last seven years have shown anything, it’s that there aren’t enough people like me in the country for Labour to rely solely on people of my ilk to win power. Labour will need to appeal to people who aren’t like me to win power.

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Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.

Labour can be the party for Walthamstow and Workington, but it needs a vision first

May 10, 2021 by Alastair J R Ball in Political narratives, Starmer, The crisis in Labour

Once again, it’s my sad duty to report that the Labour Party has lost an election. This time it’s the Hartlepool by-election; another post-industrial Northern seat has gone over to the Conservatives. On the same, Super Thursday, day of voting Labour also managed to come third in the Scottish elections. The party did win the elections for the Welsh Assembly and the London Mayor, but even the latter victory was by a smaller margin than anticipated. 

What this shows is that Keir Starmer isn’t the natural winner he was advertised to be. The idea was that a man in a smart suit, who is schooled in political strategy, has a good brain and knows how to run things would instantly be seen as the best man to lead the country, especially when compared with an incompetent clown like Boris Johnson. Starmer’s Prime Ministerialness is turning out to be less self-evident than his boosters thought.

To explain how we got into the situation of choosing a man who looks like he’s running a branch of NatWest as the leader of the Labour Party, and then finding out that there’s more to becoming Prime Minister than holding a really good meeting, we need to talk about Tony Blair. Now, I know there are a lot of hot takes about Blair, and I don’t mean to add to the pile, but he was the last Labour leader to win a general election.

What does Blair have to say about being Labour leader?

Shortly before Starmer became Labour leader, Blair was interviewed about the future of the party. Recently a clip from this interview popped up in a Labour Facebook group I’m in. The poster was trying to make the point that we should listen to Blair as he knows how to win.

In this interview when Blair is asked about who should be the new Labour leader, he says that “the most important thing is a leader with the politics to help us win an election”. I find this statement a little annoying. It’s not a profound or novel concept. It’s a sideways dig at the left of the party, not only saying that they didn’t win an election, but that they didn’t want to win. Say what you will about Jeremy Corbyn, he wanted to win an election.

Let’s take this statement at face value: the most important thing is a leader with the politics to help us win an election. This begs the question: what are the politics to help us win?

Winning politics

We know from Blair’s speech on the 120th birthday of the Labour Party last year what he thinks the politics of winning an election is. He said that his mission was to move Labour to the centre to bring together the Labour and Lib Dem vote. This is factually inaccurate; firstly because the Lib Dem vote was at its strongest when Blair was PM, and secondly because Blair won by winning over Scotland and some of Middle England to Labour, whilst not losing too much of the traditional Labour vote.

He did this by being socially liberal, pro-EU, pro-immigration and pro-free market and I’m guessing that this is what Blair meant by the “politics to help us win an election”. I have argued with Starmer boosters on Facebook that Labour being socially liberal, pro-EU, pro-immigration and pro-free market will go down like a cup of cold sick with the voters that Labour needs to win back. How many people in Hartlepool are going to come back to Labour after they announce a return to Blair’s pro-EU, pro-immigration politics?

Are the politics to win an election anti-immigration, anti-BLM, waving the flag a lot, disparaging young people and talking about how great the British Empire was when Britannia ruled the waves? It’s more likely to be the above than pretending it’s 1995 again, dusting off the John Lennon sunglasses and sticking Some Might Say on my cassette Walkman.

Winning back lost voters

Well, Blair’s successors from the Labour Right want to grab this particular bull by the horns. They don’t go as far as saying we should make Laurence Fox head of campaigns (I would prefer that we put Count Binface in charge, at least he makes better social media videos) but they do have views on what side of the culture war Labour should be on.

A recent Fabian pamphlet called Hearts and Minds: Winning the Working Class Vote says, amongst other things, that voters “are entitled to be worried about illegal migrants crossing our borders, or becoming a drain on our resources” and that some people feel “a stranger in their own country” and that Labour should be tougher on repatriating failed asylum seekers.

I don’t agree with this pamphlet and its ideas, but it does go further than platitudes, or the usual hand waving about Labour needing to connect with people from both big cities and small towns. It does seem to say that Labour should align itself with the socially conservative values of the voters it lost in 2019. Paul Mason described this plan as Labour standing for “the agglomerated prejudices of elderly people in small communities,” which about sums up how I feel about it.

Blame the young

I’m pretty sure that Blair didn’t think that the politics to win an election involved making Labour the party of the agglomerated prejudices of elderly people in small communities. I’m sure that’s the opposite of what he wants. He probably means the politics to win an election is people in sharp suits, schooled in comms and business concepts, talking about how qualified they are to run the country - y’know, New Labour - but we’ve had this since Starmer took over and it’s not working. So, now the Labour Right have another idea.

This focus on the voters which Labour has been steadily losing since about the time Blair became PM also has a hefty dose of blame for the young city people with their craft beer, tattoos and music festivals in parks for the downfall of Labour. If only they weren’t obsessed with things old boomers in small towns hate, like treating trans people with dignity and not dying from a global freshwater shortage. Corbyn might have gone, but apparently the people who liked him are still poisoning the party a year after Starmer took over.

As a member of the left of the Labour party, I get that the right of the party doesn’t want the radical change I want. They want to make capitalism more bearable, not overthrow it. Making life more bearable for the people at the sharp end of capitalism is a noble aim and I can get behind campaigns for better wages for workers, more jobs, better housing, etc. I want a revolution, but that doesn’t mean we have to live in extractive capitalist misery until it happens. If the Labour Right think they can use the power of the state to improve the lives of the poor, then that sounds good to me.

A place of greater safety

Right now, no-one in Labour is getting what they want. In Hartlepool we’re bleeding support from the fans of Mrs Brown’s Boys, and in London, the viewers of I May Destroy You are not voting for Sadiq Khan with truckloads of enthusiasm. (Don’t write in and say you watch both, you have to choose one or the other, I don’t make the culture war rules). The party is going backwards slowly and a PM who, allegedly, said “let the bodies pile high” and then oversaw 120,000 deaths just won another election.

Maybe this is more evidence that voters do really want a leader who is a craven, narcissistic, lying self-promoter who doles out culture war soundbites like they’re brightly coloured shots at an early-00s student club night (showing my age with that one). Whenever I pointed out to Starmer boosters on Facebook that the politics of winning an election look more like what Boris Johnson is doing and less like what Starmer is doing, I was told that I was wrong and that the electorate want a sensible, centre-left, social democrat, who’s a safe pair of hands.

This view seems to have become the underlying assumption amongst a good number of Labour supporters and it needs to be challenged. Labour has retreated to a place of safety. We have ended up in the centre left, smart suit, soft speaking, dinner at Pizza Express, don’t rock the boat too much or you’ll annoy people place of safety. The problem is, the Labour Party is aspiring to run more than a middle-class family holiday to Florence, and it needs some passion and some risk-taking to do this.

What does Labour stand for?

The idea that all that’s needed to win an election is a leader who is a media trained man in a smart suit and who has a proven track record of running things is comforting and reassuring to a lot of Labour members. I get that we want to be seen as reliable next to Johnson’s chaos, but this is not a vision. Labour needs a vision of how it will change people’s lives if it’s given the reins of power. Not just relying on the voters seeing us as the sensible choice.

In the absence of a clear vision, people can project whatever they want onto Labour - and none of that will be good. No-one is willing to give Labour the benefit of the doubt if it isn’t 100% clear exactly what the party stands for. Right now, what Starmer’s Labour stands for, aside from better grooming, is vague at best.

The Labour Right’s vision

The Labour Right has at least the beginning of a vision for what Labour stands for. It may be the agglomerated prejudices of elderly people in small communities, but that’s better than the nothing we have now. I disagree with Labour embracing socially conservative values - it means the party would be running away from me (as opposed to gently sliding away from me, which it’s doing right now). However, I can see how tacitly this is better than the fudge that is Starmerism.

The Labour Right’s enthusiasm for this can be seen in how keen certain members are to purge Momentum or anyone to the left of Jess Philips from the party. That would send a strong message about Labour’s identity to the voters they have lost. To justify this, they’re keen to blame all of Labour’s current woes on its younger, more socially liberal supporters scaring off frightened Boomers with all this radical talk of black lives mattering.

The party of Walthamstow and Workington

I don’t believe in blaming Labour’s problems on young city people with their strange coloured hair and strange desire to not die breathing in polluted air in the drowned ruins of our major cities before we all turn 50. I also don’t believe in ratchetting up the rhetoric on asylum seekers and immigrants as a means to win back support from Boomer Brexit voters. Especially as immigration has got less saliant as a political issue since we left the EU.

I don’t think we should take for granted Labour support in cities, like the party did with working class support in small towns during the Blair years. I also don’t think we should give up on everyone who voted for Brexit or the Tory party in the last five years as irredeemably racist and not worth attempting to convince to vote Labour again. Labour can be the party of Walthamstow and Workington, if it has a vision of radical economic change that can tackle the problems of both places.

A narrative for all

Labour needs to know what it stands for. We all know what it’s against: Tory corruption and incompetence, which is harder to argue as they successfully roll out the vaccine. Being against the government isn’t enough for an opposition, it needs to be for something. Once we know what we’re for we can craft a narrative about this country, what has gone wrong and where Labour will take it that voters of all stripes can believe in.

The result in Hartlepool and London show that Labour’s approach isn’t working. Putting on a suit and looking managerial isn’t enough to win broad support in the 21st century. There are ways that Labour can win back the voters it has lost in places like Hartlepool, along with holding onto the voters it has gained in places like London and Wales.

This will involve careful navigation of the values gap between these voters. Most notably on the issue of patriotism. More on that in the next blog post.

"Extinction Rebellion-11" by juliahawkins123 is licensed under CC BY 2.0 

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May 10, 2021 /Alastair J R Ball
Political narratives, Starmer, The crisis in Labour
Comment
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How Labour lost the working-class

April 16, 2021 by Alastair J R Ball in Political narratives, The crisis in Labour

The British working-class is a notoriously slippery concept to define. Coming up with a robust definition that fully embraces the complexities of class in modern Britain is challenging. It needs to be more than if you work in a coal mine, follow association football and own a whippet you’re working-class.

Many easier to define alternatives have been suggested, such as “the precariat” or the social grade C2D2, but despite these efforts most people still divide everyone in Britain into working-class, middle-class and upper-class.

The Labour Party and the working-class

For much of the 20th century the Labour Party was the home of working-class politics, supported by many (but by no means all) of the working-class at the ballot box. This has changed. Across Britain, and the Western world, more middle-class people are voting for left-wing parties and more working-class people are voting for right-wing parties. In Britain for the last ten years or so middle-class people have moved to become more left-wing on issues such as immigration and benefits while working-class people’s views have moved to the right.

There are a variety of explanations as to why this shift has happened, each one tells a story about where that theory’s proponents think that the Labour Party, and the left more broadly, has gone wrong in the last five, 10, 20 or 30 years. These explanations are competing narratives about the Labour Party, its history and its future. Below I will explain a few of the prominent narratives. My list is by no means exhaustive, but it covers the major explanations I found through my research. 

Who are the working-class?

To start we need to ask the question: who is the working-class? We could fall back on the historic definitions used by Karl Marx or Frederick Engels. Marx defined the proletariat as the social class that doesn’t own the means of production and their only means to survive is to sell their labour. This covers more than the working-class of today, a highly paid and highly skilled worker such as a software engineer or architect might fit this definition.

It also doesn’t describe the life of someone who worked in a factory in the 1970s, bought their council flat in the 80s, sold it in the 2000s property boom and now lives in leafy semi, enjoying a generous pension, but still views themselves as working-class. Someone who used to sustain themselves with their labour, but now lives rent free off a generous pension. This person might not have solidarity with younger people who are still working, regardless of what class they are.

A retired person, who considers themselves to be working-class, might be better off or more comfortable than a graduate (even one whose parents went to university) who is now struggling to pay rent from their zero-hours contract job. For the purposes of this essay, I’m limiting my focus to the people who consider themselves to be working-class as opposed to the poorest people in Britain.

“People who consider themselves to be working-class” and the “the poorest people in Britain” are not exactly the same thing (although there is a lot of overlap between the two groups). A 2016 British Social Attitudes Survey found that 60% of the British public identify as working-class and of those people who consider themselves to be working-class 47% had managerial or professional jobs. The survey called this “the working class of the mind”, which chimes with an LSE blog that says that: “Britons tend to identify themselves as working class – even when holding middle class jobs.”

A cultural definition of the working-class

The “working-class of the mind” highlights something that didn’t exist in Marx’s day, a means of defining the working-class by culture instead of economics. The proletariat were a new social group in Marx’s time, which is why he thought they held the key to overthrowing capitalism. A new group wasn’t weighed down with a history and culture that made it conform to the dominant capitalist ideology.

Whether Marx was right or wrong about this is by the by. The cultural definition of the working-class is important to how many working-class people see themselves. Having a certain shared set of values, tastes and attitudes is how many working-class people define themselves. The right attempts to win the voters of the working class by appealing to the attitudes that the average wealthy Tory and working-class voter have in common, such as shared sense of patriotism and dislike of “liberal nonsense”.

The right attempts to appeal to the cultural identity of the working class, but this doesn’t address the needs of the poor, suffering in poor quality housing or with low paid and insecure work. This cultural appeal to the working class is often more successful with older, usually better off, members of the working-class. Although under certain circumstances (such as the 2019 election) this can expand to appeal to more than just the comfortable members of the working-class.

An economic definition of the working class

I’m not here to argue that someone who runs their own business or works in a top profession like medicine or accounting (and maybe earns a 5 or 6 figure income) is not working-class, if they think they are. I’m making the point that this isn’t an essay about poverty. It’s about the political perceptions of the people who consider themselves to be working-class.

A modern economic definition of the working-class, as distinct from the middle-class, needs to go beyond what Marx wrote, as many working and middle-class people today are reliant on wage labour for their income. The more robust definition of the working class can be found in their material circumstances. The working-class are the people who cannot fall back on the reserves that the middle-class have, for example a family member who can support you if you fall on hard times.

This is the ideas of class that the left need to appeal to. The idea that the working-class are the people who are struggling with low pay, high costs of living, insecure work and poor-quality housing; the people for whom work doesn’t allow them to provide for themselves and their families. This different view of class takes into account how much our economies have changed since the idea of separate classes came into our minds.

The BBC commissioned The Great British Class survey in 2013, which found that Britain has seven classes, not the usual three. This is probably a more accurate summary of class in modern Britain, but to map seven classes onto my analysis will turn this essay into a book. So, to make this a manageable task I am limiting my definition of the working-class to the people who think they are working-class, as a state of mind or otherwise.

Different stories about the working-class

Some areas of the country thought of as traditionally working-class, such as the former Red Wall seats, are not solely defined as areas with a high density of working-class people living in them. Young people and better educated people have moved away from these areas as the jobs have moved to cities, which means these constituencies are now dominated by a specific subset of working-class people who are older, whiter and are less likely to have gone to university than the median voter.

Contrast this to places such as Haringey, which also has low wages and low levels of University attendance but is considerably younger and less white than Red Wall seats. From my experience, when arguing with someone they tend to change their definition of the working-class to fit the argument they are making, drawing more heavily on one or the other of these two broad icons.

I will try to keep my definition of the working-class in this article as wide as I can, to bring in as many stories and experiences as possible. However, the purpose of this essay is to find out why the working-class voters that Labour needs to win over to be in power are deserting the party, so I will inevitably lean more towards the Northern and Midlands, post-industrial working-class than the Southern or city based working-class who are still reliably voting Labour.

Why stories matter for this debate

In the absence of a reliable definition of the working-class we rely on stories about who the working-class are and why they might not be voting Labour anymore. Stories are not the same as political science, backed up by focus groups and polling, but they offer a way to understand the political shifts that have taken place recently in the UK.

In 2019, former mining town Bolsover elected its first Tory MP in over 100 years. To accurately explain why this happened from a political science perspective I would require hundreds of thousands of words and mountains of data, which I don’t have access to. The stories I am about to explore talk in generalities, but they are useful because they provide a broad vision of how the Labour Party has managed to lose the support of places like Bolsover. It’s up to the current Labour leadership to turn these stories into messaging and policies to win these voters back.

Story 1: It’s all about Brexit

Let’s start with an obvious one: Labour messed up the EU referendum. Working-class people were more likely to support Leave and Labour has been strongly identified with Remain. This was not only during the EU referendum itself, but in the three and a half years between Britain voting to leave and actually leaving the EU.

The story states that it was a mistake for Labour to adopt the same position as the Tories in the referendum, making it look like the establishment was lining up behind Remain and against working-class people’s desire to leave.

Grace Blakeley makes this argument in her article for Tribune titled How Labour Lost the Working-Class. She wrote: “During the [2019] election, I spoke to voters up and down the country who expressed the same sentiment: with the entire British establishment united behind Remain, they finally had a chance to kick back at a political class they felt had cheated their communities over many years.”

Blakeley makes other arguments about how Labour lost the working-class, not just the Party’s stance on Brexit, but her article is part of a story that seeks to use Brexit to explain Labour’s loss of support amongst the working-class.

There are issues with this story, not the least that it relies on a stereotype of working-class voters as Leave voters. Analysis from Lorenza Antonucci, Laszlo Horvath, and André Krouwel at the London School of Economics has shown that Leave voting is not collated with being working-class or having low levels of education (as is often claimed).

In a blog post for LSE they wrote: “rigorous analysis showed that the profile of Brexit voters is more heterogeneous than initially thought, and that it includes voters with high education and ‘middle class’ jobs.”

They go on to argue that Leave voting is more highly collated with a newly emerging “impoverished middle class” i.e. people who have middle-class jobs but have seen their standard of living squeezed.

This story also ignores the fact that Labour’s support amongst the working-class had been declining before the referendum, before Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader, or Ed Miliband became Labour leader. For example, in the 2010 election, 37% of people on social grade C2, skilled manual occupations, voted Conservative against 29% who voted Labour.

Labour’s disconnect with its former working-class supporters who voted for Brexit in 2016 and the Tories in 2019 is a symptom of a deeper disconnect rather than the cause itself. It’s not just that Labour made the wrong choice on whether to be pro or anti-Brexit; Labour failed to understand why people wanted Brexit. To get to the bottom of this we need a story that goes deeper and goes back further in time.

Story 2: A decline in representation

This story holds that a decline in the number of Labour MPs from working-class backgrounds has led to the fall in Labour’s support amongst the working-class. During the period where working-class support for Labour has steadily declined, it became more common for middle-class Labour candidates to represent working-class constituencies.

This often happened because these were seen as “safe seats” and a way to get political advisers into parliament, as part of the career path for middle-class Labour apparatchiks; from Oxford, to think tank, to political adviser, to MP. An obvious example is how middle-class Tristram Hunt (born in Cambridge, the son of a life-peer) was parachuted in to represent the heavily working-class seat of Stoke-on-Trent Central.

Ashley Cowburn explores the story of declining working-class representation in Labour in detail in his longread for the New Statesman: how political parties lost the working-class.

In his article, Cowburn said: “Data available from the House of Commons library shows that around 37 per cent of MPs from the party came from a manual occupation background in 1979. Fewer than 7 per cent did in 2015. Oliver Heath, an academic at Royal Holloway, University of London, claims this harmed the party’s image among its traditional voters.”

The roots of the representation issue go back at least until the 1980s. Cowburn spoke to Heath for this article who says that the decline in working-class support for Labour can be “quite clearly” traced to Neil Kinnock’s leadership "when he tried to distance the party from working-class radicalism". Heath said to Cowburn: “[Kinnock presented] a more middle-class, more sort of professional, social image of the party that then might attract some more middle-class voters. And that continued under Tony Blair.”’

The decline in working-class support for Labour happened over the same period that representation of the working-class decreased amongst Labour MPs. However, there hasn’t been a corresponding rise in support for other parties led by working-class politicians.

UKIP chose Paul Nutall as its leader in November 2016, who wanted to make UKIP the “patriotic voice of the working-class”. Today, this looks daft when we remember how ineffective Nutall was as UKIP leader, however, it was a very real fear for people on the left after the Brexit vote.

In 2017 Cowburn spoke to Nutall for his article and Nutall was keen to emphasize that many Labour MPs “have got absolutely nothing in common" with their constituents. “I mean look, do they have anything in common with a working man’s club in Durham, or a working man’s club in Hull, or Leeds. I doubt it very much indeed," he said to Cowburn.

Despite fear on the left of UKIP becoming the voice of the working-class, some people were skeptical of Nutall’s appeal. Angela Rayner, then shadow education secretary, said to Cowburn: “It’s not enough just to be northern and working-class – we’re not stupid.” She added: “We’ve been hoodwinked… it’s incredibly patronising, it’s not enough to just say we’ll have some northern trinket. You’ve got to have substance behind you.”

Why bring up the debate around an ineffective and largely forgotten UKIP leader? It highlights a flaw in the simple logic of the story that decreased working-class representation amongst Labour MPs is the cause of the loss of working-class support. UKIP were unable to steal Labour votes using working-class representation.

That said, this story is supported by evidence and goes some way to explaining why Labour’s support amongst the working-class has declined. However, I don’t think it offers a complete explanation, so we need to look at some other stories.

Story 3: Labour has chosen to prioritise middle-class values over working-class ones

This story covers a broad spectrum of ideas, such as “choosing Jeremy Corbyn as leader was alienating to the working-class” and “Labour has become too ‘woke’ for the working-class”.

Corbyn’s alienating effect on working-class former Red Wall voters is the largest factor in Labour losing last year’s election. However, like Brexit, choosing a Labour leader so at odds with what a lot of past-Labour voters wanted speaks to a deeper disconnect. The problem is not that Corbyn was Labour leader, but that most party members wanted him to be Labour leader.

The Labour Party is still made up of the people who voted for Corbyn to be leader twice. These are the members who want Keir Starmer to be more vocally supportive of the recent Black Lives Matter protest and make stronger commitments to left-wing policies. What these members advocate for has an effect on how Labour is perceived by working-class voters.

These members are at odds with working-class voters (and most other voters) on issues of identity. They are much more likely to be skeptical of patriotism, the military and the police than most voters. They have a more negative view of British history, especially imperial history.

A recent Labour Together report into the 2019 general election highlighted how the three groups (of the 14 they studied) that were most likely to support Labour had radically divergent views from the rest of the country on social issues such as immigration and patriotism. 

I write this as a middle-class Labour Party member who voted for Corbyn to be leader and whose views on immigration and patriotism are divergent for the average voter, as I have become plainly aware from polling and talking to people. I’m writing this essay whilst drinking craft beer, in trendy East London and leafing through the Dishoom cookbook deciding what I’m making for lunch whilst listening to Dream Nails. I am aware that this story says that the Labour Party has prioritised my values over those of working-class voters.

This story is best summed by a recent RT article by Dr Lisa McKenzie that argued that contemporary middle-class left-wing activists are more interested in symbolic victories (such as removing a statue of a slave trader in Bristol) than in improving the lives of working-class people.

McKenzie wrote: “The erection or removal of statues are symbolic decisions made by those with the most power to celebrate or denigrate any point, person, or narrative in history. Rather than argue among ourselves about effigies of dead white men, let’s do something positive and lasting for people who are still alive today.”

This story expects us to believe that Labour spent the last four years only talking about cultural appropriation, trans-rights and Palestine. Corbyn offered an economically radical program aimed at improving the situation of the poorest in society. Many of these policies were individually popular, but the overall perception of Labour and its leader led to defeat.

This story is also based on the assumption that all working-class people are white, Daily Express readers who have an inbuilt hostility to anything socially progressive. Some working-class people are LGBTQ+, or people of colour, or young people, who might have views about immigration or trans-rights more in line with those of Labour activists.

The working-class are not a single monolithic block who share one common set of values. Even a sub-set of the working class (such as Red Wall voters who supported the Tories in 2019) did not all vote the same way for the same reasons. There are groups within groups. Some more inclined to vote Labour than others.

Older, retired members of the working class are the most likely to hold socially conservative views and be at odds with Labour activists. They are also the least likely to be in an economically precarious position as their income (pensions mainly) have been protected by the last ten years of Tory governments, who chipped away at every other form of welfare apart from welfare for the old.

Labour is very unlikely to win back these voters, who might have voted Labour when they were working, but the ring fencing by Tories of their benefits means they are now free to vote for the party that aligns most with their socially conservative values.

Younger working-class people are more likely to vote Labour and have values more similar to the middle-class, metropolitan Labour supporters. There is a middle group between these two groups. People who are working age working-class voters in crucial swing seats, whose material conditions have become much more precarious over the last 11 years of Tory rule, and can be convinced to vote Labour if the party is serious about fixing the issues that blight this group. For example, regional underinvestment, lack of jobs and quality housing.

Research from Labour Together has shown that many working-class, former Red Wall voters have different social attitudes to metropolitan Labour voters; for example, seeing patriotism as something positive. The Tories appeal to the social values of working-class voters. Even those who are economically struggling and likely to benefit from Labour policies. Identity politics is a big issue that can turn these voters away from Labour.

The story of the Labour Party adopting more middle-class values that are alienating the working-class voters does a lot to explain Labour’s problems. However, it doesn’t explain why Labour’s economic policies were popular with both middle-class and working-class voters. To understand why this is, we’ll need to look in more detail at the political forces affecting working-class voters.

Story 4: Labour embraced neoliberalism

This story is based around the idea that it was Labour’s acceptance of the post-Thatcher neoliberal consensus that alienated the party from the working class. When Labour came back into office in 1997 they did little to challenge the low tax, low regulation, “free markets are more efficient” ethos of Margaret Thatcher and John Major’s Tory governments. Labour also did little to rebuild the power of the trade unions that had been decimated.

The story’s strongest evidence is Blair’s statement that his job “was to build on some Thatcher policies” and Thatcher’s statement that New Labour was her greatest achievement. This indicates that there was an ideological consistency between the two governments, which contributed to the prevalence of the alienating view that all politicians are the same.

Again, the process of Labour becoming a neoliberal party did not begin with Blair. It was a slow process that began in the 1980s under Kinnock, who took the party away from its traditional trade union roots and focused it towards winning the votes of the middle-class. In doing this he rejected many of the economic orthodoxies of the Labour Party. This continued wholeheartedly under Blair.

Most people don’t understand economic theory (including those who claim they do) and ideas like “neoliberalism” that might be common parlance in left-wing political circles don’t feature much in the considerations of the average voter.

Most people do have a keen awareness of the effects of economics on their jobs, their wealth and their communities. Many Labour voters have seen the negative effects of economic change in their communities as decent jobs disappeared and were replaced by insecure, low paid, causal work or nothing at all. The damage this has done in some communities (particularly in the former Red Wall) has caused many voters to look for solutions to their problems they would not have considered before, such as voting UKIP or Tory.

New Labour did very little to reverse the trend of deindustrialisation, (that began in the 1970s and was accelerated by the Thatcher government), which hit working-class communities hardest. New Labour creamed some off the top of the rabid financial capitalism of the City and used it to make welfare more generous for the working-class communities who had lost most of their industry, but they did very little in terms of offering hope or a vision of a better future to these communities.

Steve Rayson argues in his book The Fall of the Red Wall that working-class voters’ economic views are more left-wing than the average middle-class voter’s, and that voters in the former Red Wall would prefer higher taxes and more redistribution. This supports the idea that Labour’s move away from these policies in the 80s and 90s has moved them away from the values of working class-voters.

This story does little to explain why certain working-class voters switched from Labour to Tory, the party of Thatcher and synonymous with neoliberalism. The Tories’ support for Brexit partly explains this, but as we have seen, Labour’s declining working-class support predates Brexit. Brexit’s strongest advocates (the Farages and Jacob Rees-Moggs of this world) see Brexit as a neoliberal project. They’re not fighting to bring back heavy industry to Britain, but to free business and the ultra-wealthy from the oversight of the EU.

This story also doesn’t explain why Corbyn (who rejected neoliberalism) lost support amongst the working-class. It also doesn’t explain why Miliband’s Labour, with mild criticism of neoliberalism, performed worse amongst working-class voters than New Labour, who embraced neoliberalism.

The reasons for declining working-class support for Labour are more complicated than just economics. Although Labour’s acceptance of neoliberal economic policies did put them at odds with the values of many working-class voters, the social signals that Labour has been sending since the 1980s are also a factor. For an explanation of this, we’ll need to look elsewhere.

Story 5: Working-class voters are cross-pressured

This story uses the concept of being “cross-pressured” to explain the decline in Labour’s working-class support. This argument is heavily drawn on in Steve Rayson’s book The Fall of the Red Wall. Rayson writes that working-class people (especially those in the former Red Wall constituencies that he studied) typically have economic views that are drastically to the left of the median voter, but social views strongly to the right. This puts cross-pressure on said voters when choosing between a Labour Party that reflects their economic values and a Tory Party that reflects their social values.

This concept of being cross-pressured is interesting as it shows how working-class politics are different to middle-class politics. Middle-class people’s political views are likely to be more moderate than working-class people on both economic and social issues. For a long time (again probably since Kinnock in the 1980s) Labour has been chasing middle-class voters and has thus moved to the centre, alienating working-class voters on economic and social issues.

This story explains the difference between middle-class and working-class politics and also explains why the Tories were able to appeal to working-class voters, despite their economic policies being opposed to the self-interest of working-class voters.

(For those who are interested, the argument about working-class voters being cross pressured is explored in more detail in Steve Rayson’s book The Fall of the Red Wall. Shameless plug time: you can also read my article about his book that explores this topic as well.)

One piece of good news for Labour is the issue that has created the greatest cross pressure, immigration, is decreasing in its political salience. The socially liberal values of many Labour activists and the economic model based on the easy movement of workers, which the last Labour government was committed to, put Labour at odds with many working-class voters who were hostile to the rise in immigration that happened under New Labour.

Since voting to Leave the EU, immigration is seen as a less critical issue by many voters. This could be because voters feel Britain now has more control over its borders after leaving the EU. Some voters are, supposedly, not opposed to immigration, just to immigration that parliament doesn’t approve. It might also be because voters feel that immigration has declined since we left the EU.

Immigration may be less of a hot button issue, but Labour still needs to do more to make sure that the Tories cannot use the cross-pressured nature of working-class voters to lure them away from Labour. This involves Labour putting forward a program of radical economic change, one which both its working-class and middle-class supporters will like and benefit from. It also involves making sure that the party appears sufficiently aligned with working-class voters on social issues. This later part is easier said than done and bears looking at in more detail.

Appealing to the working class

There is no one clear story that explains where Labour has gone wrong in the last 40 years in holding the support of the working class and there is no single solution to the situation the party is in now. It is important to not think of the working class a single group. Younger members of the working-class are more likely to have values that align with younger people in the middle-class, who form the bulk of Labour’s activists. Winning over older working-class voters, many whom are materially well off, will be a lot harder.

Social issues, such as patriotism or Britain’s Imperial history, and identity politics will remain divisive issues that are likely to increase the cross-pressure on voters who can be won over by a Labour. To alleviate this cross-pressure Labour will have to appear more patriotic, or at least find a way to avoid accusations of being ashamed of or embarrassed by patriotism.

I’m not a patriotic person and I do think that political patriotism has many problems. I would like to explore the effects of patriotism, good and bad, on our politics in a separate essay. There are risks for Labour if the party attempts to appear more patriotic (not the least it being seen as insincere) but to win back the working-class Labour will need to appear more patriotic.

This doesn’t mean excessive or comic amounts of patriotism. Many voters require reassurance that Labour shares their values and isn’t sneering at them. For Labour to be seen as patriotic, it isn’t a case of “go UKIP or go home”, light touch patriotism is all that is needed.

Many people across the country are struggling with low pay, insecure work or unemployment, poor quality, housing, long waits at their GPs, a shortage of school places, their local school/hospital/any public building falling down, poor transport infrastructure and a general break down in the fabric of society that is supposed to hold everyone together. Meanwhile the wealthy’s interests are protected by the government. Covid-19 has made this problem much worse. This is the foundation that Labour can build a winning electoral coalition on.

The problems above affect both the working and middle-classes. Many people were struggling before a deadly disease ripped through society. There is an opportunity to win lots of votes with a message of change for the better and then, maybe, the chance in government to actually make people’s lives better.

Patriotism can be appealed to whilst also arguing for radical economic change. Over time many people whose views appear intransient can be convinced to be more open minded. The route to winning over the working-class is telling a story that offers a solution to their material problems, instead of fighting over issues of identity that divide the voters that Labour needs to win over.

The common thread of these stories

Each of these stories tells us something about where Labour has gone wrong in trying to win the support of the British working-class. Almost all of these stories trace the blame for this back many decades. Although, Corbyn carries the blame for not acting to reverse this trend and in many places accelerating it.

Corbyn has gone and his chosen successor is no longer in the shadow cabinet. The soft-left is in charge of the Labour Party and Labour’s polling has improved, but they still lag behind in the seats the Tories took from Labour in the 2019 general election. Corbyn’s election as Labour leader is a symptom of the larger disconnect between Labour’s middle-class activists and its working-class constituencies, which stories 2 and 3 argue.

Each of these stories helps us to understand where Labour has gone wrong. None offer a complete prescription for fixing the problem and the current Labour leadership would do well to bear all in mind when forming a strategy for winning back Labour support from the Tories.

Although each of these stories has useful information and all are good explanations, Labour cannot tell five different stories to win back the working-class or they all drown each other out in a cacophony of confusion. Labour needs to find the common threads of these stories to create a narrative that will win over the working-class and middle-class votes that Labour needs to get into power.

Polling station image taken by Rachel H and used under creative commons.

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April 16, 2021 /Alastair J R Ball
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The Fall of the Red Wall by Steve Rayson shows the role that narrative played in Labour’s defeat

July 20, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour, Political narratives

When the votes were counted after last year’s general election, and the Tories had won 41 historic Labour seats in the North and Midlands, it became clear that a realignment in politics had happened. 

Some of these seats had returned Labour MPs for over 100 years and were now returning Tory MPs despite being blighted by deindustrialization under Margaret Thatcher and austerity under David Cameron. Now that the dust has settled, we can begin to ask: why were ex-coal miners and factory workers turning their backs on Labour and voting Conservative?

This is the subject of a new book by Steve Rayson that is published today. The Fall of the Red Wall: 'The Labour Party no longer represents people like us' doesn’t seek simple answers to the complex question of how politics appeared to change so much in such a short time. It doesn’t reach for the obvious answers of “Brexit” and “Jeremy Corbyn”, but locates these in a wider story of social and political changes that were all brought to a head in December 2019.

The role of narrative

Rayson has conducted a lot of detailed research and thoroughly explains the causes of the fall of the Red Wall. He draws on a range of sources, from academic research to statements made by MPs, to focus groups, to polling, to articles by journalists. The book is certainly comprehensive. Rayson makes a lot of good points about what happened during the last election, but to save time I’m going to focus on the element that interested me the most: the role that narrative played in the fall of the Red Wall.

In Rayson’s words: “In traditional Labour constituencies across the Midlands and the North, a ‘never Tory’ generation put aside historic narratives of being Labour towns and Labour people and voted for the Conservatives.” He details how the dominant narrative of “Labour towns and Labour people” was defeated by a challenger narrative of “the Labour Party no longer represents people like us”. Again, this wasn’t caused by Brexit and Corbyn, although both were factors.

For many decades the “Labour towns and Labour people” narrative had been weakening until it finally broke in the last general election. Many Red Wall voters’ sympathies had been with the Tories for some time, but they kept voting Labour because of the “Labour towns and Labour people” narrative. It required a certain number of people to publicly voice their support for the Conservatives for the taboo of voting Tory to be broken. New stories about the Tories surging in the polls in former Red Wall seats finally caused the “Labour towns and Labour people” narrative to collapse and voters’ preferences for the Tories to be revealed.

A long decline

The decline of the “Labour towns and Labour people” narrative can be traced back to the 1980s and the decline of the trade unions that maintained this narrative. It was weakened by New Labour who pursued a new coalition of voters - more middle-class, more affluent, more centrist - and didn’t engage as much with Red Wall voters. New Labour thought they had no one else to vote for and, for a long time, they didn’t. This led to Red Wall voters feeling at best taken for granted or at worst looked down on by Labour’s metropolitan leadership.

This narrative was further weakened by people who were likely to have a strong preference for Labour leaving these constituencies. Younger, more liberal and more educated voters have moved to large cities where there are better job prospects. This had led to a demographic shift in Red Wall seats, making them older, less well educated and more socially conservative: i.e. much more like the typical Tory voter.

Rayson writes about how political changes also made it easier for voters to switch parties. Voters are more volatile now, Rayson writes: “party loyalty has declined over many years and we now live in an increasingly volatile political world. In the 2017 election 33% of people changed their vote from 2015. Over the four elections from 2005 to 2017 around 60% of people voted for different parties.”

Rayson also argues that more elections (EU elections, local elections, mayoral elections, referendums) make it easier for voters to experiment with switching parties before a general election. There is also the possibility of UKIP or the Brexit Party offering a half-way house for voters switching from Labour to the Tories. 

What next?

The Fall of the Red Wall mainly describes what happened, which is essential reading for anyone who cares about the fate of the Labour Party. What I was most interested in is the book’s final part: what next?

Rayson states that Labour needs a new narrative, which I strongly agree with, and that the lack of a coherent narrative was a major weakness of the 2019 campaign. He also agrees with a recent Labour Together report (which he cites in his book) that Labour needs to focus on an economic message, as left-of-centre economic views and dissatisfactions with our current economic system is one thing that unites the various disparate groups that Labour needs to win the votes of to get back into power.

The Fall of the Red Wall also makes the case that this needs to be more than a message, it needs to be a narrative. The story that Labour needs to tell must run deeper than economics, it needs to take into account how voters in the Red Wall and beyond see the world, their fears and their aspirations for the future. The story that Labour needs to tell needs to unite people in a shared vision of the country a Labour government will create.

Cultural divide

There are many challenges to this. Rayson states that: “in developing a new narrative Labour has to be cognisant of a significant divide on cultural issues. Analysis by Datapraxis for the Labour Together review indicates this divergence on social and cultural issues [between Red Wall voters and 2019 Labour voters] is growing. This presents a major challenge for Labour in developing a narrative that realms the audience’s sense of identity and reflects a sense of shared values.”

Rayson is not the first writer to point out the difference in values between former and current Labour voters. The generational aspect of this divide is not discussed enough, nor is the fact that Labour needs to hang on to young voters as the party's future and their activist base.

I was also hoping for more details of what the different values are, beyond the clear differences in views on patriotism, law and order and immigration. Understanding exactly what the values difference is will be crucial for the new Labour narrative.

Moving to meet Red Wall voters where they are

It’s not enough to just to look at how Labour’s current supporters are out step with the rest of the country on the issues of patriotism, law and order and immigration. The book shows that the voters in these Red Wall seat’s economic views are far to the left of the median voter, but their social views are far to the right. This allowed the Tories to appeal to them on social grounds with a message of Brexit, toughness on crime, and patriotism. 

Rayson makes a strong case about moving to meet Red Wall voters on social issues could alienate many voters because of how far to the right Red Wall voters are on social issues. This books chimes with a recent article by Lynsey Hanley who argues that: “Labour will win by changing minds – not pandering to rightwing voters” and is part of a wider body of evidence that Labour shouldn’t jump to the obvious conclusion from the loss of the 41 Red Wall seats.

Labour needs to know how to speak to Red Wall voters in a way that resonates with them. If Labour focuses simply on issues like patriotism, law and order and immigration to win back Red Wall voters they risk alienating the median voter (as well as Labour activists) as Red Wall voters are significantly to the right of the median voter on these issues.

My view on the narrative that Labour needs

The story that Labour needs to tell needs to offer more than moving the party closer to where the median voter is on the issues of patriotism, law and order, and immigration. Labour can wave the flag more, talk up the police (additional police has been Labour policy under Ed Miliband’s and Corbyn’s leadership) and bring back their “controls on immigration” mugs, but this won’t be enough to win over Red Wall voters.

I don’t think that many voters see a difference between what Miliband and Corbyn stood for in terms of patriotism, crime and controls on immigration. The difference between the two might have defined Labour’s civil war for the last five years or so, but from the outside it looks like Judean People’s Front Politics. Is Starmer seen as any different? He might be closer to the average voter (if not the Red Wall voter) on these issues, but is that a meaningful enough change?

My concern is that Labour is not appreciating the huge task ahead to winning back the votes that have been drifting away for most of my lifetime (and I’m not a young man). I don’t think that choosing Keir Starmer as Labour leader is a solution to the problems of Labour not being seen as representing Red Wall voters, despite the fact he’s from a different Labour tradition than Corbyn.

A step on the road towards reckoning with what went wrong

The publication of this book is a step on the road towards Labour reckoning with what went wrong last year. The detailed research and insights in this book highlight how the “Labour towns and Labour people” narrative crumbled. I hope this will be a wake up call to the fact that getting rid of Corbyn isn’t the answer to Labour’s problems. Labour needs a plan to win.

Understanding why the Red Wall fell and the role narrative plated in this fall is essential for understanding what Labour should do next. The Fall of the Red Wall is an essential tool for this as it outlines what the narrative that Labour needs to tell to start winning again might be like.

Labour is still a long way from having a strategy and narrative that can win. What The Fall of the Red Wall shows is that Labour needs to understand what went wrong and then start thinking about how to fix the problem. 

The Fall of the Red Wall: 'The Labour Party no longer represents people like us' is out today and can be purchased from Amazon.

Labour Party picture taken by Andrew Skudder and used under creative commons.

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July 20, 2020 /Alastair J R Ball
The crisis in Labour, Political narratives
Comment
social-media.jpg

Does the left live in a bubble?

May 26, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour, Technology, Political narratives

The day after the 2019 general election, Nick Cohen tweeted: “Never mistake your Twitter feed for your country”. He was implying that those of us on the left, rooting for Jeremy Corbyn to win the election, were out of touch with the average voter as we’re cocooned in an internet echo chamber filled with people who agree with us. 

I don’t make a habit of agreeing with Nick Cohen, but he did have a point. I had mistaken my Twitter feed for my country. I had mistaken my country for one where people cared about other people. A country where we didn’t vote in a posh buffoon simply because it was the fastest way to make Brexit go away, so that most people can go back to ignoring politics while everything else gets worse.

I wanted a Corbyn government that would tackle rising homelessness, child poverty, crumbling schools and the looming environmental disaster. The country (or at least large parts of it) had a different idea. I had made a painful mistake. If I could move to my Twitter feed I would.

Does the left live in a bubble?

It’s not just the day after a general election that I feel like this, although it’s particularly strong on those days. The left is frequently accused of living in a bubble. Another example is this Helen Lewis piece claiming (supported by a lot of evidence) that the Twitter electorate isn’t the real electorate.

Lewis cites the example of the response to Rebecca Long-Bailey’s use of the phrase “progressive patriotism” in her pitch to be the next Labour leader, and how this was seen by some on the left as dangerously close to racism. Lewis states that “to read so directly across from ‘patriotism’ to ‘racism’ is a fringe position.”

I had criticism of the use of this phrase, but as Lewis said: “Some 67 percent of Britons describe themselves as ‘very’ or ‘slightly’ patriotic. Telling two-thirds of the country that they are secretly racist is a courageous electoral strategy.” I guess my dislike of the idea of progressive patriotism is proof, if anymore where needed, that I’m out or touch with the general voter and live in a bubble.

Personal bubbles

I wonder if this is mainly a by-product of the fact that most of our politics is done online? I don’t get my political news, views and discussion from BBC news bulletins. I get it mainly from the internet, and predominantly from what is served up to me by Twitter and Facebook algorithms.

These algorithms look at the things that I read, the post I interact with and the people I follow to build up a picture of me. They then filter the content that Facebook or Twitter shows to me to reflect my interests: i.e. left-wing politics. This personalisation of content is done to keep my attention focused on Facebook or Twitter for longer so that they can show me more ads, which is how they make their money. 

This all seems harmless until a general election rolls around and I’m left bewildered by the fact that everyone didn’t vote for the party offering more money for schools, hospitals and homelessness prevention, despite the fact that all this was very well received by my Twitter feed.

“The common ground of news”

Adrienne LaFrance said, in an article for Nieman Reports: “The fear that personalization will encourage filter bubbles by narrowing the selection of stories is a valid one, especially considering that the average internet user or news consumer might not even be aware of such efforts.” 

LaFrance interviewed Judith Donath, author of “The Social Machine: Designs for Living Online” and a researcher affiliated with Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society, who said: “You may have friends or colleagues, and you read the same things in common. You may decide different things about it. Then you debate with those people. If you’re not even seeing the same news story, it leaves you with a much narrower set of people with whom you share that common ground. You’re losing the common ground of news.”

This is what happened to me. Twitter wasn’t showing me the posts from the people who thought that all the nice things that I wanted from a Corbyn government were a waste of money, or posts from the people who wanted to “get Brexit done”, or the people who thought Corbyn was insufficiently patriotic to be Prime Minister. If Twitter had shown me these comments I would have logged off in a sulk and they wouldn’t have been able to show me more ads for hotels in Croatia.

Techno-fixes

There is a technological fix to this, as explained in this Ted Talk on filter bubbles by Eli Pariser. He said that the issue is that Twitter and Facebook give their users an information diet consisting of only things they like, which he calls “information desserts”. However, as any parent knows, it's best to give your children a balanced diet, not just what they like.

Sometimes children need to be given things they don’t want to eat for their own good. I’m referring to us all as children because that’s how the tech platforms treat us and it’s also, frankly, how we act online. According to this idea, it would be good if Twitter showed me some posts of people yelling about how immigrants are stealing the country and we need to vote Tory to stop it, even if I wouldn’t like it.

In principal I’m in favour of this, as long as there's a Daily Express reader somewhere having videos by Hbomberguy dropped into his timeline after he tweets “Get Brexit done” a certain number of times.

Would this work?

I can see the benefit of a varied information diet. According to Pariser it’s a diet of: “Some information vegetables. Some information desserts.” Vegetables, in this case, being people saying that Corbyn is a softy, unpatriotic, metropolitan, immigrant loving liberal and desserts being people saying that maybe the government should do something about all the people sleeping in the bus station every evening.

I’m a little skeptical if this would work. There is lots of evidence that facts (or other people’s opinions) don’t change our minds. Although I am heartened by this story of a young man who fell down a YouTube hole, became alt-right and then changed his views when he encountered left-wing YouTube.

Is this a left-wing problem?

The Facebooks and Twitters of this world might be creating filter bubbles through personalising our timelines, but that’s not specifically a left-wing problem. Everyone is on the internet, even my 69-year-old mum (hi mum, I’ll reply to your email about socks after I’m done writing this).

The accusation of living in a bubble is mainly levelled at the left, specifically the radical left. You don’t see Brexiter, Tory voters being accused of living in a conservative bubble where everyone is frothing about immigrants or Cultural-Marxism destroying Britain. No one says they should be given information vegetables in the form of Owen Jones or Laurie Penny columns.

The views of people who complain about immigrants or metropolitan elites are taken to be common sense. Occasionally, people point out that common sense can be wrong, but that still accepts right-wing views as the default position of most people. I guess if right-wing is the default position then the fact that I disagree means that I do live in a bubble and I’m disconnected from reality.

Centre or right?

Maybe the majority of people in the country are conservative. The evidence for this is a few minutes looking at the supposed “centre ground” of British politics. In January this year, former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron wrote an article in the Guardian about what “progressives” need to do to win. In this he said: “At present, Labour’s brand is so terrifying that it pushes voters into Conservative arms.” From reading this you would think that 2019 Labour manifesto includes pledges for a massive war to liberate Palestine, the abolishment of prisons and gender, and confiscating all money above what the average Labour voter earns.

I can see why most people might find that programme a bit too spicy for their bland British sensibilities. However, only the most brain-dead, Daily Mail mainlining, Little Englander would think that’s what a Corbyn government would have been like. Then again, it’s probably what Tim Farron, supposedly in the centre of British politics, thinks a Corbyn government would have been like. Apparently, money for teachers and nurses, helping the homeless, cheaper public transport and green jobs is “terrifying”.

My bubble is my happy place

If you haven’t guessed from my tone so far, I’m not happy with the world outside my bubble. I don’t think most British people are Nigel Farrage, but if this is Tim centre-of-politics Farron’s reality then I don’t want to live in it. So, I’m currently looking at moving to my Twitter feed and I must say that, judging by the pictures, some of these flats in Animal Crossing are very nice.

I don’t know where this leaves the Labour Party. The sad truth is that we do have to win over some people who think that Tim Farron is right and thought Corbyn was so scary that they had to vote Tory. I don’t like saying it, and I’m going to wash my mouth out with soap afterward, but after two defeats for Corbyn I’m starting to think that there aren’t enough craft beer drinkers in Britain to vote in socialism.

That doesn’t mean Labour has to give up on socialism and spend their time chasing some hypothetical centre ground voter. There are stories that can unite the country and break the left out of our Twitter bubbles. Next time I’m going to look into what these are.

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May 26, 2020 /Alastair J R Ball
The crisis in Labour, Technology, Political narratives
Comment
Labour Party.jpg

The Labour needs an effective story to start winning again

May 12, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in Political narratives, The crisis in Labour

In the last four British elections whatever the Labour Party was selling, the UK wasn’t buying. Be it centrist Gordon Brown, soft-left Ed Miliband or radical left Jeremy Corbyn, the British electorate wasn’t interested.

Whatever Labour tries it doesn’t work. They have policies, media plans, electoral strategies, but it doesn’t all come together. There’s been something crucial lacking: a story. A story that Labour can tell that ties up all their ideas and policies into a vision for the future that the voters can get behind.

Both Miliband and Corbyn tried to tell stories about where the country had gone wrong under Tory rule, but these failed to capture the public’s imagination. Both had popular policies, but the story that united them into a vision was lacking. Now that Labour has a new leader, Keir Starmer, the party needs to think about the story it’s going to tell.

Where stories are needed

A good place to start looking for a new story is the two debates of the last few years where Labour’s lack of an effective story has had the most severe impact: Brexit in England and Independence in Scotland.

Brexit and Scottish Independence have been a pox on Labour’s house. They cut across Labour’s voting coalition and have divided the party. This is because the stories that are being told on either side of these great divides don’t mesh with the stories that Labour is telling. The stories of Brexit and Scottish Independence concern national identity, a subject that Labour is not comfortable telling stories about. Labour is much more comfortable telling stories about class or social justice than national identity.

Stories and national identity

National identity is the story of the nation itself. The story of the USA is that it was created in a revolution to give its citizens life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. What actually happened in American history is something else, but that doesn’t stop the story of America being a great story. One that has made America, for better or worse, the world’s flagship democracy. This story is deeply embedded in American culture, seen in media as diverse as The West Wing and An American Tale.

Other countries have stories bound up in their nation’s identity. The story of Israel is that it’s the promised land of the Jewish people as laid out in the Tora and the Old Testament and that after the Holocaust, it’s the only place where Jews can be safe. Britain and Scotland have stories behind their national identity too, which I’ll come back to.

Stories of national identity and political campaigns

The story a political party or movement is telling to win over voters needs to work with the story of the nation. Brexit works well as a political story. It’s the story that says: the country is being stolen from the good, honest citizens by a nefarious elite for their own enrichment. Again, whether it’s true or not is immaterial. It’s a great story, which people believe, and it inspires them to vote a certain way.

The story that Scottish Independence is telling is that Scotland is held back, or ground down, by being a part of Great Britain. You can interpret this story in a number of ways. You can believe that Britain is too conservative, or that Britain wants to keep Scotland at heel out of spite, or any other reason why attaching Scotland to Britain (mainly England) is bad for Scotland. What’s important is that the story tells of how much better Scotland would be if it were an independent country.

You can argue about the evidence to back up this story, which is that the independence campaign was on one level. However, it is undeniably a compelling story about Scotland that motivates people to vote for independence.

Political campaigns and counter narratives

Political campaigns are stories. Remain and Leave are both stories about Britain. Yes or No to independence are stories about Scotland. For a story to win an election there are two things to avoid.

The first is the counter-narrative to your campaign’s story that can neutralise it. For the Scottish Independence, it was a story of how much better Scotland is off in the union. The story is about the money that comes to Scotland for being part of the world’s fifth largest economy. The Scottish Tories push this counter-narrative the most. Scottish Labour has struggled to tell this story as many Labour activists don’t want to be telling the same story as the Conservatives.

Contradictions to political stories

The second factor that can cause the narrative of a political campaign to become unstuck is anything that can contradict the story that you are telling. For Scottish Independence this was anything that showed that Scotland was not a viable nation outside Britain, such as disputes on whether an independent Scotland could use the Pound or could produce its own currency.

These contradictions can be more damaging than an effective counter-narrative as they lead voters to stop believing in your story. This is why the Scottish Independence referendum became an argument over the facts that support the independence story, because if they didn’t and instead contradicted the story, then the story loses its power.

Lessons from the Scottish Independence campaign

Labour got what it wanted out of the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum because of the interplay of these two factors. The story of Scottish Independence had too many contradictions. Boring stuff such as currency arrangements undermined the story the pro-Scottish Independence side was telling.

At the same time, Gordon Brown was able to lay out the counter-narrative. He was the only British politician who could tell this counter-narrative without adding to an element of the pro-independence narrative that all British political parties are the same in wanting to keep Scotland shackled to Britain.

These two factors coming together may not happen again. If Labour are committed to keeping Scotland in the Union, then they need to come up with their own counter-narrative to that of independence. The only alternative is to use the same counter-narrative as the Scottish Tories, which only fuels the independence narrative.

The left and stories of national identity

The counter-narrative to Scottish Independence that Labour need to develop (to either win seats in Scotland again or prevent Scotland leaving the Union) needs to factor in Scottish national identity. Labour also needs a story about British (or maybe English) national identity. Labour have no effective counter-narrative to Brexit and no way of contradicting the story of Brexit, which is why Brexit won the 2016 referendum and has divided Labour’s electoral coalition since.

Labour (or the left more broadly) need to tell a story about British national identity if we’re going to start winning again. Tony Blair, for all his faults, was able to tell a story about how Britain was casting off the shackles of the past 18 years. No longer will crusty old Tories be in charge. Britain was becoming a young, energetic, dynamic nation. It helped that Brit Pop and ‘Cool Britainnia’ was happening at the same time.

Critiques of stories about national identity

On the left, we have many critiques of the story of Britain. We’re good at pointing out how the British Empire was founded on imperialism, racism and exploitation. We’re also good at saying that nostalgia for a past that didn’t exist as we collectively remember it is holding us back from tackling the challenges of the 21st century.

Now don’t get me wrong. These critiques are important. They can be used to contradict political narratives or build counter-narratives. They are also important in recognising that reality is more complicated than a story, which mustn’t be lost sight of. However, the left needs to tell a story about national identity that is different to that of the populist right, or stories about national identity will be used as a weapon against us.

The left is uncomfortable about telling stories about national identity

The left feels uncomfortable about telling stories about national identity. We prefer stories about groups of people and not nations. Stories about groups of people (bound by class, region, culture, race, religion, sexuality identity, age or anything else) are important and should not be neglected. Again, they will inform the counter-narrative to the populist right that must be laid out.

Nations are made up of groups of people and we need to find a story that means all the people of Britain can live together. Most people in Britain identify with the nation and its story, not just the disaffected white old people who voted for Brexit, so the left needs to find a way to tell a story about national identity.

Labour needs to find its story

When faced with the narrative of Brexit, Labour wasn’t part of the counter-narrative - that Brexit is a bad idea and that it’s good to be in the EU - and Labour were unable to contradict the Brexit narrative. However, Labour were not telling the Brexit story and thus the Tories were able to use this story - that disconnected politicians were trying to thwart the will of the people - to convince over enough voters to win the 2019 general election.

The problem that faced Labour was that the stories of Brexit and Scottish Independence split the Labour coalition. Labour was unable to choose a side between the narrative and counter-narrative for either, and have been caught in the middle of it.

Labour doesn’t need to tell the Brexit story, but it does need to find a way to contradict it or lay out a counter-narrative to start winning again. The same is true for Scottish Independence. Contradicting a story about something as nebulous as the future of a nation is difficult, so Labour need a counter-narrative. This counter-narrative will have to involve a story about national identity.

Brexit has happened and a second Scottish Independence referendum looks unlikely during the coronavirus outbreak, but Labour still lacks a story they can tell to convince the voters to buy what Labour is selling. A story about national identity. Unless Keir Starmer can come up with an effective story that includes British and Scottish national identity then he too will lose elections as his three predecessors did.

Labour Party picture taken by Andrew Skudder and used under creative commons.

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Labour is trapped by the split over Scottish independence in Scotland and England

April 14, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

The further North one travels the harder it is for Labour to win. London is a Labour stronghold, but in the last election the Tories won across large swathes of the Midlands and the North. Travel north of England and you get to a land where Labour haven’t won a decent share of the seats since the 2010 general election.

Labour lost badly in Scotland in last year’s general election. However, Labour’s problems there pre-date Jeremy Corbyn’s term as leader. The problem goes back to Labour standing shoulder to shoulder with the Tories in the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum and how Labour dealt with the rise of the SNP in Holyrood before that. In the 2010 general election, Labour won 41 seats in Scotland the SNP won six. In 2015 the SNP won 56 seats to Labour’s one. Since then, Scotland has been beyond Labour’s reach.

The problems Labour is facing in its former heartlands are worse in Scotland and the factors that led to Labour’s woes have been fermenting north of the border for longer. Last December Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, the seat of former Prime Minister Gordon Brown where Labour once boasted a majority of 23,009, was won by a SNP nominated candidate. (Although candidate Neale Hanvey was suspended from the SNP for alleged anti-semitic social media posts.)

In Holyrood, and in Scottish seats in Westminster, the SNP rule supreme. Will Labour ever be able to win in Scotland again? Can they stop the all-defeating Scottish National Party?

 The success of the SNP 

The SNP’s success is partly due to their effectiveness as a political party. Whilst I am personally opposed to all forms of nationalism, from angry Trump nationalism to softly spoken SNP nationalism, I must acknowledge that Nicola Sturgeon is a very talented politician and a great leader for the SNP. She combines a wild passion for change with a calm reasonableness that allows her to not only bridge, but to transcend, the gap between idealistic and pragmatic politics.

The SNP are able to present themselves as lefty (or at least liberal) in contrast to the underlying conservatism of the English and thus appeal to left-wing Scotts who are tired of being ruled over by right-wing governments they didn’t vote for. At the same time, they are appealing to the voters moved by nationalism: a politics of identity based on place of birth and a sense of grievance that the people born in said place have been betrayed by a culturally (and physically) distant elite.

The SNP are also in power in Holyrood and using the authority of being in government to increase their support, as all governments attempt to do. At the same time they are telling a story about how Scotland can be a radically different country, if the SNP are allowed to follow their transformative agenda. They are both technocrats and populists; passionate and pragmatic. They’re something to everyone, or at least most Scots.

Anti-English hatred

The SNP benefits from an underlying current of anti-Englishness in Scotland that can spill over into outright hatred. The SNP themselves aren’t frothing with hatred like many nationalists the world over, but they do benefit from being the electoral home of anti-English hatred. This allows them to appear moderate and reasonable whilst winning the support of people who are very angry about the status quo.

There isn’t a party more nationalist than the SNP in Scotland. No one is biting at their flank, accusing them of being too moderate and peeling off the more hardcore (or more angry) proponents of Scottish nationalism. This allows the SNP to reach out to undecided Scotts, the wavering people who could decide the outcome of a future independence vote. 

These voters are a crucial part of the SNP coalition and they depend on them for their victories in Westminster and Holyrood elections. The SNP don’t have the risk of being the victims of a rear-guard action. I do wonder how they would manage their message, if they had a more aggressive, openly hateful of the English, nationalist rival to contend with.

Labour is caught between union and independence

The SNP’s strength is that they can tailor their message to appeal to the crucial swing voters in Scotland, safe in the knowledge that committed nationalists are behind them. Whereas Scottish Labour is trapped between supporters of independence and supporters of the union, just as Labour is caught between Leave and Remain voters. 

Labour is not seen as sufficiently pro or anti-Scottish independence. The parties that have done well in Scotland have a clear position: the SNP for independence and the Scottish Tories (once on the verge of extinction) for the union. Despite Labour moving to the left, they are still stuck in the middle of a political divide.

Emotive issues

This is splitting the Labour vote is causing electoral ruin. The independence/union fault runs across the middle of the Labour voting coalition, just as the Leave/Remain faultline does. In England and Wales, the Tories revived their fortunes after the disastrous 2019 European elections by unambiguously choosing a side of the divide and leveraging it for all it was worth.

Scottish independence (or Brexit) are very emotive issues. They concern how people see the future of their country. On such emotive issues, voters response well to passion and not moderation. This isn’t the 90s, where being dispassionate and shunning ideology was the way to show you were serious about politics.

This is an age of emotive stories about what the future should be like and Labour is losing out by not having a firm stance on the most important issue affecting Scotland. For Scottish independence (and Brexit) Labour needs to find the side it feels passionate about and strongly articulate this to the voters. 

Angry English Brexiteers 

The issue of Scottish independence is not only divisive in Scotland, but in England as well. If Scotland were to leave the union, it would be a radical change to the United Kingdom. In many ways the country would cease to exist and we would become a new country. Thus English people’s views on Scottish independence is tied up with other highly emotive political debates that concern how we see the future of the country. 

From speaking to English people about Scottish independence the split of opinion (roughly) follows the same divide as English people’s views on Brexit. However, not in the way that you would think. Remainers tend to be more pro-Scottish Independence and Brexiteers more pro-union. Being able to leave pan-national political unions it appears, doesn’t extend to the Scots.

English Brexiteers really don’t like the SNP. Not all of them feel this way, but for many a Brexiteer mentioning the SNP gets their blood up faster than calling the British Empire a racist project or criticizing nostalgia for the Blitz Spirit. The root of this objection to the SNP is that they are seen as anti-patriotic. Their fundamental political goal is the destruction of the United Kingdom, or least it's irrevocable change, which is antithetical to the English.

Anger about the Barnett Formula

In addition to this, the SNP exists to campaign for Scotland. They’re seen as wanting to get more than Scotland’s fair share, and there’s nothing that makes an English person angry than the thought of someone, who isn’t them, (maybe, gosh, someone who is different to them) getting more than their fair share).

This is tied up in anger about the Barnett Formula and how public money is allocated to Scotland. The Barnett Formula seems quite reasonable to me (it will obviously cost more to run an ambulance service in the Scottish Highlands than in East London) however, many English people see the SNP’s advocating for Scotland as nothing but naked greed at the expense of English taxpayers. 

English Remainers and pro-EU Scottish nationalists 

English Remainers are different. They’re generally more in favour of Scottish independence and some are even more vocally pro-SNP. I have seen some Labour supporting English Remainers praising the SNP when Labour make noises about accepting the referendum result and listening to Labour supporters who voted for it. This is usually tied up with English Remainers claiming they are politically homeless.

The SNP have won affection from English Remainers by doing the two things they want most from English political parties: being pro-EU and winning. The SNP does this well and no English political party can muster both.

My view 

I’m an Englishman (anyone who has heard my ridiculous RP accent will know I am incurably English). I was born in the Midlands and live in London. However, my family has roots in Scotland, something that was acknowledged by giving me the Scottish name Alastair. As such I have fondness for Scotland as part of the United Kingdom that goes beyond what I feel for other regions, even my native Midlands.

Personally, I am opposed to Scottish independence. I see any form of nationalism as stoking the fires of strife between people. I feel no strong national identity or attachment to the nation state. I don’t want to make more nations, but less of them. I want to see humanity united in a common union of us all, although I’m not sure what this would look like as a political project.

Also, if Brexit has taught us anything, it’s that unwinding political unions along a timeline that satisfies voters hungry for immediate change is a waste of time that could be better spent doing anything else. Like more Olympics and Eurovisions, everyone loves those.

England divided

It’s my strong belief as an Englishman that the issue of Scottish independence says something about how we see ourselves and our country. On one side we have those who believe that your national identity, as determined by where you were born, is important and want these national identities to be protected. Protecting national identity includes taking Britain out of the EU, but keeping the United Kingdom together. It also includes limiting immigration and preserving British culture as it is. 

On the other side we have those who are skeptical of national identity and value political projects that transcend nations. They believe that national cultures are enhanced by the mixing of people and the changes this brings. Their belief in this includes supporting parties whose purpose is tearing up existing nation states, so long as they preserve the overall goal of maintaining the political projects that transcend nations.

The way forwards

If Labour is going to form a majority government ever again then it needs to be able to win in Scotland. Now that Labour has a new leader, Keir Starmer must make winning back Scotland a priority if he is serious about winning power in Westminster. Labour needs a position on Scottish independence that shows passion and that speaks to Scots. Half measures will not be enough. 

Labour’s problem in Scotland speaks to a bigger problem facing Labour across the entire United Kingdom. The problem is that Labour don’t have a story they can tell that speaks to people across the country, a story that makes the voters desire a Labour government. This story needs to include Scottish identity and go beyond it to include all national identity. How can Labour tell such a story? That’s what I will dive into next time.

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Who should be the next Labour leader?

March 31, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

This Labour leadership race feels like it has been going on forever. I mean, when this race began, we could go outside, and now we can’t. Life comes at you fast, as they say. 

However, this weekend it will finally end. On Saturday a new Labour leader will be announced via an online video, I believe, to maintain social distancing. Then, finally, the race that began when Labour lost the general election in December will be over. There’s just one last thing for me to do: vote for the candidate I want to be Labour leader.

I’m optimistic about a Labour Party led by any of these candidates. Of the three candidates still in the race, I don’t think any of them would be a terrible leader. They would all bring something interesting to the role.

Conversely, there is no candidate that has really impressed me. None of them have seized this race as an opportunity to show that they embody the future of the Labour Party. No one has transcended this race and captured the interest of the general public.

I don’t feel as confident casting my vote today as I did when voting Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. I guess, this means that whoever wins has the opportunity to rise above my expectations and become a greater Labour leader.

So, without further ado here are the candidates in the order in which I voted for them:

Number 1: Rebecca Long-Bailey

I decided to put Rebecca Long-Bailey first mainly because of her work on Labour’s Green New Deal, an excellent piece of policy-making that is exactly what the country needs. It may sound silly to say that the looming environmental catastrophe is the biggest challenge facing the country during an outbreak of a deadly disease, but I have every confidence that Covid-19 will subside and the current state of emergency will end. The damage being done to the environment is permanent and it threatens many more lives than coronavirus. There isn’t going to be a vaccine against rising sea levels. Well, apart from being rich.

Long-Bailey has been a tireless campaigner for the things I want most from a Labour government from a Universal Basic Income to enhanced workers’ rights. She is a confident media performer, able to handle a tough interview, as she has shown during the Corbyn leadership. I have great confidence that Long-Bailey would be a capable Labour leader.

Number 2: Keir Starmer 

It was a difficult decision as to who I was going to put second on my list of preferences. What convinced me to put Keir Starmer second was his 10 pledges. Let’s be honest, Starmer has been the front runner in this contest since quite early on, and he’s very likely to win it. He could have coasted to victory saying little and making few commitments to what his time as leader would be like. However, he didn’t do that. He unveiled 10 decent, left wing pledges that are all things I agree with, from social justice to devolution. Although his pledge on the environment falls short of a commitment to a Green New Deal, Starmer is promising action on this key issue. 

Starmer was director of public prosecutions and in that time showed that he cares deeply about human rights and protecting the vulnerable. These are the qualities we want from a new Labour leader. Starmer’s political instincts may be closer to Ed Miliband than to Corbyn, and it’s frankly ridiculous that Labour will have had two leaders called Kier before one woman, but I still think Starmer has solid left-wing principles and will make a good leader.

Number 3: Lisa Nandy

Of all the candidates, Lisa Nandy is most willing to wrestle with why Labour lost last year’s general election and why Labour’s support had been declining in our traditional heartlands for a while. She has produced the outline of a plan to engage with former Labour voters in the North and Midlands. I have my doubts that Nandy’s political instincts are compatible with what many former Labour voters want (she’s properly closer to me than to them; she’s been a strong defender of freedom of movement, for example) but she does have the most concrete plan out of the three candidates.

I put Nandy last in this list, but that doesn’t mean I think she would be a bad leader. She has passion for her consistent and the Labour cause. She’s a capable media performer and has ideas about how to lead the Labour Party forward. If she has become a rallying point to those most opposed to Corbyn’s leadership, then it’s because these people don’t understand what Nandy stands for. I also want to be clear that I’m not putting her last because she decided that Labour should get Brexit done because it’s what her constituents wanted.

The winner in the room

At this point I should address the elephant in the room, which is that listing the candidates in my order of preference seems a bit moot when the polls show that Starmer is likely to win by a huge margin. His closeness to Corbyn and his pro-EU stance sit neatly at the centre of the overlapping area of the Venn Diagram of what Labour Party members like. That, and the fact that he’s a white man in a suit who can give a good speech, means that lots of people think he’s a naturally gifted leader.

As I said, I don’t think Starmer will be a bad leader. He has good left-wing principles, he looks good on TV and his background as a barrister will serve him well during Prime Minister’s Questions. I’m not sure if an ex-human rights lawyer, who sounds posh (whether he is or isn’t) and has a constituency in London is the best person to win over the people who resented the London establishment so much that they voted first for Brexit and then Boris Johnson, but I am prepared to be proved wrong over this.

If Tories are able to paint Starmer as a soft, bleeding-heart, metropolitan toff, and no-one who thought Brexit was a good idea will vote for him, then which voters are Labour planning on going after? I don’t know, but what I’m worried about is that Starmer doesn’t know either.

The Labour Party under Starmer

If Starmer wins, which he probably will, I want him to remember that his party is a broad church and the radical left is a valid part of it. It would be a huge mistake to put us in a box and ignore us. Starmer has preached unity through the years of division. Now is his chance to show that he can bring the party together. A good start would be giving Long-Bailey and Nandy senior positions in the shadow cabinet.

Starmer isn’t my first choice for leader, but as I said, any of the three candidates would be a capable leader. I agree with Long-Bailey more than the others, but I’m prepared to keep an open mind and see what the eventual winner of this endless contest actually does with the leadership. If Starmer can unite the party and take the fight to the Tories, then Labour stands a chance of winning again. If he can’t then we’ll be looking at any more years in the wilderness that can’t be blamed on Corbyn.

"File:Official portrait of Rebecca Long Bailey crop 1.jpg" by Chris McAndrew is licensed under CC BY 3.0 

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How do the Labour leadership candidates do when compared to our three tests?  

March 10, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

Right. I have danced around the issue long enough. There’s been plenty of posts on this blog about the broader political issues surrounding the Labour leadership contest. Now it’s time to get down to the main question: who should be the next Labour leader? It’s time to appraise the three remaining candidates.

Previously we outlined three tests that a Labour leadership candidate would have to meet to win our support. These tests are broad and they don’t cover everything that’s needed to be a good Labour leader or to win an election. However, they’re a good way of focusing the discussion and preventing the answer to the leadership question from becoming a book.

Test 1: Acknowledge left wing members

This test can be summarised as: do the candidates think that the left-wing of Labour is a valid part of it? Should we be listened to as part of Labour’s broad church? Do the candidates talk about removing or purging the left, or Momentum, or Jeremy Corbyn’s supporters from the Labour Party?

You might think this is a low bar to clear but, based on some centrist Labour Facebook groups that I love to hate-read, there are definitely party members who would be happy with a purge of anyone who’s in Momentum or ever voted for Corbyn.

Fortunately, none of the candidates have said anything of the sort. In fact, all have made overtures to left-wing Labour members or used left-wing rhetoric.

Rebecca Long-Bailey has excellent left-wing credentials as a loyal Corbyn supporter and architect of Labour’s Green New Deal. Keir Starmer has unveiled his 10 pledges and there’s lots for us lefties to love in there from commitments on common ownership, social justice, migrants’ rights and trade union powers. Lisa Nandy has said lots of left-wing things on issues such as free movement.

There’s no clear winner from this test. Long-Bailey is the most left-wing candidate and Starmer has some good pledges, but I feel confident that all the candidates will have some good left-wing policies and won’t try to purge left-wing members or lock us in a box to be ignored.

Test 2: Be willing to seriously analyse the defeat and the way forward

All the candidates have views on why Labour lost last year’s general election and what should be done. However, to be a serious analysis, and to offer a way forward, these views need to coalesce together to form a plan.

The Labour Party desperately needs a plan to get back into power. The plan under Corbyn was to see if people were willing to give socialism another look now that we’ve seen where unfettered capitalism leads. One of the reasons why the Corbyn-skeptics in the Labour Party failed is because they didn’t have a plan (to either remove him from power, or for what to do with the Labour Party afterwards) beyond howls of indignation that they weren’t in charge and some grubby unwashed socialists were.

Despite having lots of views, all three of the candidates have been vague about what their plan is if they win. Nandy has been the most up front about having a plan. Her plan is to listen to the people who used to vote Labour, but no longer do, in towns across the North and Midlands. She isn’t very clear on what to do after we listen. Nandy has said she wants free movement to continue, so I’m not sure what the plan is if the people who are being listened to really do want Labour to be an explicitly anti-immigration party.

If this is the result of the listening, then I think the plan is to tell these people what they are really worried about is the pressure on schools, GPs and housing caused by austerity, and not the fact that there are more Polish people around than their used to be.

This is fraught with risk. Even if people’s “concerns about immigration” are really concerns about the state of the public realm or pressure on them personally, are the voters ready to be told they’re wrong about their feelings? In my experience, they’re not.

It’s a flawed plan, but still it’s a plan. There’s also the issue that lots of people in the Labour Party who don’t live in small towns in the North and Midlands want to be listened to as well. Like me for one. Well, a guy from Islington who doesn’t like nuclear weapons has been in charge of Labour for nearly five years and we just lost badly, so I guess that’s my quota of being listened to used up.

The other candidates aren’t so up front about what their plan is. What is Starmer’s plan beyond hoping the rest of the country love him as much as the #FBPE crowd does? I have a theory that the Starmer plan might be the Nandy plan. Maybe it will be expressed slightly differently, but it will probably be that Labour needs to, on some level, accommodate the views of long term Labour supporters who voted first for Brexit, and then for Boris Johnson. If this is what Starmer wants to do, then it might help Labour get back into power, but it’s not what his supporters want.

The #FBPE crowd can’t stand Nandy as she comes dangerously close to listening to the people who voted for Brexit. They hate this idea, and have embraced Starmer as the anti-Nandy who will lead the charge for rejoining the EU. I get the feeling that a lot of Starmer supporters are going to be disappointed when they find out what the Starmer plan is.

Long-Bailey also hasn’t been up front about her plan. I guess it’s Corbynism without the baggage Corbyn had from years of acting as if he was never going to be Labour leader. That, and hoping that now Brexit has happened, people are willing to listen to calls for more money for schools and hospitals, renationalising the railways and taxing the rich.

Beyond the hope that Corbyn was the thing that was holding back Corbynism, Long-Bailey doesn’t have much of a plan. She is loved by metropolitan, craft beer drinking, yoga practicing, vegans. The crowd of people who had seen Parasite before it won best picture. The crowd who go to the theatre at times other than Christmas panto season. (I mean, instinctively I gravitate towards Long-Bailey, but I’m literally writing this in the members bar of the Tate Modern while drinking a pint of craft beer infused with loose leaf tea.) I’m not sure what the plan is to reach out to people beyond this crowd, if Long-Bailey becomes Labour leader.

So, no one has a fully thought through plan, however, Nandy has been the most up front about this and she should get some credit for this.

Test 3: Prioritise the climate crisis

The environment is the biggest issue facing humanity right now and has to be the top priority of the next Labour government. (If, you know, we don’t die first because of the climate.) This is the issue I want to hear the most about from candidates, and they’re hardly mentioning it.

Long-Bailey was the architect of Labour’s Green New Deal and the commitment for the country to be carbon neutral by 2030. Climate Justice and a clean Air Act is one of Kier’s 10 pledges. I’m sure Nandy has mentioned the environment at some point (she’s certainly into more buses for towns, which I guess is pro-public transport and thus sort of a good thing for the environment), but it hasn’t really cut through.

So, all three candidates aren’t talking about the environment, but Long-Bailey has the best track record on this issue.

Lack of conclusions

None of the candidates is the clear winner from these three tests, although no one is clearly failing. Starmer has some good left-wing pledges and a commitment to the environment. Long-Bailey has excellent left-wing pedigree and has done great work getting Labour’s climate position to where it needs to be. Nandy has been the most open about her plan and a solid plan is essential for the next Labour leader.

I remain unsure on how I am going to rank the candidates when it comes time to voting. My conclusion from all this is that I don’t have one.

There are many other issues not covered by these tests and they don’t cover how the candidates will handle unexpected events (such as the pandemic). There is also one major issue that is on mind, for personal and for strategic reasons, which is how will these candidates win back Scotland? My next post will explore this issue.

Labour Party picture taken by Andrew Skudder and used under creative commons.

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March 10, 2020 /Alastair J R Ball
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2 Comments
Labour Party in parliament.jpg

What would a successful Labour leader look like?

February 25, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

The Labour leadership race has narrowed down to three candidates: Rebecca Long-Bailey, Keir Starmer and Lisa Nandy. One will become Labour leader and then have the unenviable task of battling Boris Johnson in the next election. Assuming climate change or nuclear war doesn't wipe humanity out first.

Labour Party members, which includes myself, must decide who we want to lead us, so it's worth asking who we think would be the most successful leader of the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn was a major reason why many people didn't vote Labour last year, which left me wondering: what can we learn from him about what makes a good Labour leader? What would a successful Labour leader look like?

After the 2019 election defeat, a friend of mine said that what people want in a Prime Minister is a bland bank manager. Someone who appears professional, intelligent and responsible. Someone who isn’t going to shake things up too much. Someone we can trust be a sensible, surprise-free captain of the ship of state.

Radicalism can be a scary prospect

I think there’s something to this. It isn’t what I want for a Labour leader or Prime Minister - I want someone radical. There’s lots of things that need to be shaken up and I want the Prime Minister who’s going to do it. If we try and tackle the climate crisis without shaking things up a bit, we won't get anywhere before we’re all dead.

I acknowledge that most people find radicalism a scary prospect. The scale of the changes to our country that Corbyn was offering made people nervous. Lots of people want someone they can trust to look after everything and not do anything rash like ripping out our entire economic model. The idea that reassuring voters is a way to beat a maverick like Johnson is something the Labour leadership candidates should take note of.

Tony Blair bank manager

According to this theory, Tony Blair won three general elections because he was better at the bland bank manager act than the three Tory leaders he faced. David Cameron beat Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband because he was a better at looking like a bland bank manager than they were. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn didn’t look like sensible bank managers and so neither of them won a majority.

By this logic, Starmer is the best bland bank manager. His boring public persona is an asset, making people free calmed and reassured by him. Starmer has failed to inspire me as either a great reformer (like Corbyn promised to be) or a charismatic leader (like Barack Obama), but I can see the logic of appearing bland and inoffensive to reassure worried voters.

To be fair, both Nandy and Long-Bailey have strong bank manager vibes. Long-Bailey used to be a solicitor and Nandy doesn't shirk the conventions of how we expect a politician to look and behave, as say, Dominic Cummings, does. All three of the candidates do a better bank manager act than Corbyn did.

Keir Starmer bank manager?

Starmer most resembles a bland bank manager because he most resembles the people we’re used to seeing in positions of authority. This is because he’s a well-educated white man. This is also what most of our Prime Ministers and all of our Labour Party leaders have looked like, which partly explains Starmer’s large poll lead. If you asked most people to draw a picture of what the Prime Minister looks like in abstract, then you’d get something resembling Starmer from most people. This gives candidates like Long-Bailey and Nandy a disadvantage from the start and it’s part of the reason why women and people of colour find it harder to make it to the top jobs in politics.

If we want a bland bank manager for the Labour Party leader, then Starmer is the obvious choice. However, is that really what people want? Do we want a safe pair of hands while homelessness and child poverty are rising and the world hurtles towards an environmental disaster?

America is going through their own version of this right now with the race to become the Democratic nominee for president. Currently Joe Biden is on his fifth comeback and looks like he might become the nominee. Biden has bland bank manager in spades (coupled with American folksy charm) whereas his main rival, Bernie Sanders, is the epitome of a scary radical.

There are many differences between British and American politics, but I will say that the Biden pitch shows the risks of being an uninspiring, ‘safe pair of hands’ candidate, i.e. he will lose to nationalist bully Donald Trump. This Guardian article draws interesting parallels between the USA today and the USSR in the 1980s, where the leadership was desperate to keep the candidate for radical change from power. The most damning point is that although Biden is a great bland bank manager, he lacks substance and, considering the state of the world, we need substance from our leaders now.

Inspiring leadership

Corbyn, for all his faults, did inspire people that politics can be more than letting nervous voters decide who is the least surprising bank manager type person and letting them inhabit Number 10 for a few years where they will hopefully do as little as possible. Corbyn showed us that we can aspire to change, to be a better country. Of course, what is inspiring to one person is scary to another and radicalism inspired many to vote against him. This strategy also falls down if the candidate can’t live up to the weight of expectations put upon them and deliver inspiring change: as happened with Barack Obama.

Of course, not everyone wants the same thing in a leader. There is also a generational element to this. Older voters, who are more likely to have their mortgages paid off and be sitting on a good pension, are (generally speaking) more likely to want a bland bank manager type leader who will not shake things up too much. Younger voters want, and need, someone more radical to head off the problems that are likely to dominate our lives, such as the climate emergency, automation taking away all the jobs and global politics becoming increasing unstable. Older people are more insulated from these existential risks, mainly because they are unlikely to see them fully play out.

I think we (young and old) do want to be inspired by our politicians, and the focus on who was the best bland bank manager during the 90s and 2000s and is one reason for many people’s dismal view of politics today. I think that a politician who can inspire people to be better and live up to that inspiration can win over a bland bank manager.

Radical bland bank managers

Of course, a politician can resemble a bland bank manager and act in a radical way. Johnson sold his plan to fundamentally change the British economy via Brexit as nothing too radical and many nervous voters opted for over Corbyn’s radicalism. Perhaps this is what we’ll get from Starmer. A don’t scare the horses approach to change that the country needs. However, by moving slowly and timidly to not to scare the horses, we might not make it in time to save them from drowning.

On the 27th of February Labour Party turned 120. In that time Labour has spent only 30 years in power and has only had four leaders who have won elections. With this in mind the question of what a good leader of the Labour Party would look like is more pressing than ever. However, I’m worried that in a rush to find someone inoffensive, who doesn’t scare voters, we might miss the possibility of inspiring them.

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Does Labour need a new Blair?

February 11, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

On the 27th of February, it will be the 120th anniversary of the founding of the Labour Party. A sobering thought is that Labour has been in power for only 32 of those 120 years. Of those 32 years, 10 of them were under Tony Blair.

Labour is currently having a leadership election where the legacy of the former Prime Minister (as in every Labour leadership election) is a point of debate. In most of the left-wing Facebook groups I’m in, Keir Starmer is being compared to Tony Blair; with this being presented as self-evidently positive or negative.

Due to the unusually high number of election victories (for Labour) that Blair notched up, people have said that Labour needs a new Blair. This is often a coded way of saying that Labour needs to move to accept a broader social consensus, instead of challenging one. This is what Blair did when he become Labour leader, putting to bed years of arguments over the virtues of free-markets. Today, those who admire Blair are reaching for a broad consensus that Labour can accept to win over large sways of the electorate.

Consensus? What Consensus?

Those who suggest doing this assume that there is a consensus to move to. Now is not the early 90s - at the ‘end of history’, there was agreement about the key political issues. Today politics is defined by big divisions, from Europe to identity politics, to economic stagnation. I really don't think there is a consensus for Labour to move to.

Blair accepted the neoliberal consensus so that Labour would be trusted on the economy. Although the Tories remained more trusted on the economy until Britain unceremoniously fell out of the ERM in 1992. My concern is that similar maneuver today is not about adopting an economic consensus, but a social one.

Labour is out of step with the a large chunk of the general public by not wanting to engage in a culture war against popular targets of dislike such as immigrants, Muslims, feminists and London. Labour is not interested in pandering to idea that these things are not British, are fundamentally suspect at best and are at worst working to destroy Britain. I'm glad that Labour is not willing to blow dog whistles or actual whistles about unfamiliar things that most people instinctively dislike. I'm glad that Labour seeks to challenge these popular prejudices. Most people don't want their prejudices challenged.

Before we go any further I want to be clear: this is not dig at people in the Northern and Midlands seats that Labour recently lost. Hostility to immigrants and a willingness to engage in a culture war against things that are seen as not British enough is prevalent across the country. I have encountered it from middle class Londoners, old people, young people, English people, Scots and Welsh people. This isn’t a problem of class, geography or education. It’s everywhere.

Brexit consensus, or lack therefore of

If Labour was willing to “meet people where they are” (as it is often referred to as) on hostility to other cultures and metropolitan values, it would also mean accepting the reality of Brexit. This is unlikely for a Labour membership that is about to elect Keir Starmer as leader. Blair himself has been vocally opposed to Brexit and has become something of a rallying figure for the people who are opposed to Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn's willingness to accept it. However, in a recent interview Blair said Remainers “have got to face up to one simple point: we lost” and that Labour needs a new position now that Brexit has happened. I wonder: how many of Blair's admirers will heed these words?

Even if Labour is willing to accept Brexit AND pander to popular prejudices to meet people where they are, will all this tackle the other major problem for Labour: being locked out of Scotland? I'm not sure how Labour can meet Scottish voters where they are. The Scottish Labour Party has almost destroyed itself through opposing Scottish Independence. Being neutral on the issue won't help and Labour will struggle to win power if Scotland does leave the union. Meeting people where they are has nothing useful to offer in Scotland.

Blair’s legacy

Blair was certainly very good at balancing competing political concerns to convince enough voters that he stood for what they wanted, which meant he had enormous electoral success. However, what he built hasn't lasted. Blair changed politics during his time in power, but politics today feels very unBlair. Boris Johnson, a conservative populist, is Prime Minister. He is very much the anti-Blair, and he won power by appealing to the people strongly opposed to two of the things Blair is most well-known for: supporting the EU and being accepting of immigration. The people who still believe in Blair’s vision may not have been voting for Corbyn, but they weren’t in Johnson's electoral. If anything they voted Lib Dem. Still Johnson has been very successful by finding millions of voters opposed to everything Blair represents.

Does the subsequent anti-Blair reaction to politics reflect the problem of meeting people where they are? People move, and not always in a helpful direction.

I wonder where Tony Blair thinks everything went wrong? Probably when Gordon Brown ousted him from power, or when the Labour Party decided it wasn't happy with what Blair had done. Does he wonder that if maybe he had constrained the banks a little more or intervened in the labour market more or controlled immigration more or not invaded Iraq or been more skeptical of unrestrained capitalism then the situation we are now could have been averted? Does Blair think he’s responsible for the current dire state of our politics. Probably not.

Even if Labour wanted a new Blair, none of the candidates standing to be Labour leader are a new Blair. I don't see any of them transcending left and right politics the way Blair did. Blair was, at the end of the day, a very skilled politician. He was able to do what he did because he played the game of politics very well, not because of the accommodations he made towards people's base conservativism. None of the candidates for Labour leader display a Blair level of skill at politics.

Agreeing with Blair

I'm going to end by doing something that I don't often do: agreeing with Tony Blair. In the above interview, Blair said that Labour needs to “learns the lessons of defeat.” This is true but I'm not sure that the lesson to be learned from Labour's defeat is that we need to meet voters where they are, wherever they are. This would involve a level of pandering to popular prejudices that I'm not comfortable with. Blair was especially good at meeting people where they were, but the fact that we now live in a very unBlaira era shows the limits and risks of this approach.

"Tony Blair" by StefdeVries is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0 

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Rediscovering Labour’s broad church

January 28, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

The civil war that has raged in the Labour Party since Jeremy Corbyn became leader in 2015 must end. As Abraham Lincoln said: a house, divided against itself, cannot stand. Or as David Runciman has said several times: divided parties do not win elections.

Corbyn and his allies fought hard in the civil war against much of the Parliamentary Labour Party, some of the members and lots of media commentators who were opposed to him. However, despite fighting hard he didn’t win the civil war and so it dragged on like a millstone around his neck, weighing him down when he needed to rise in the polls.

Corbyn didn’t win the civil war because it's unwinnable. The only way it could end would be if the leader had the power to purge everyone from the party who disagreed with him. One should not have that power. Only authoritarians can decisively win civil wars. Just ask Oliver Cromwell.

The civil war has rumbled on into the race to succeed Corbyn as Labour leader. After that, it must end if Labour is to stand any chance of winning power and helping the people who have been suffering under what will have been 14 years of Tory rule when the next election comes around. The new leader, even if it’s Rebecca Long-Bailey, will need to come to an accommodation with those in the party who opposed Corbyn.

The acceptance of Labour as a broad church

This accommodation needs to be rooted in the idea that Labour is a broad church that tolerates a range of opinions. This is said a lot, at times by people who used it as a justification to undermine the Labour leader, but it remains true.

The left of the party needs to put an end to the purity tests that alienate lots of people. No one wants to be in a snobbish club that looks down on people who don’t meet an exacting standard. Especially as this standard is often measured in how outraged someone can be on Twitter or in Facebook groups. If someone thinks Tony Blair did a good job as Prime Minister (leaving aside the war in Iraq) then it’s fine for them to be in the Labour Party. Purity tests put people off.

All sides and groups in the Labour Party are guilty of setting purity tests and taking delight in excluding people. Every group is guilty of admonishing someone for expressing doubts about Corbyn’s leadership or that the party is too Remain-y. Too often the factions in the Labour Party have defined themselves more by who they are not than who they are. It’s worth remembering that Blair talked about his vision for socialism when he was running for Labour leader in order to win the support of a membership who are, broadly, socialists. It’s difficult to imagine Jess Philips doing this.

The Labour Party should stand for socialism

Today, as in 1994, the Labour Party is, broadly, a party of socialists. Socialism is difficult to precisely define but, like many political philosophies, you know it when you see it. Socialism can take many different forms and there is room for different interpretations in the broad church of the party. As I said, Blair had a vision for what socialism was in the early 1990s. It’s not a vision I agree with, but it falls within the spectrum of Labour party socialism.

However, socialism can’t mean anything. It can’t be twisted to stand for expanding the reach of markets or from allowing massive inequality. There are things which are not Labour. If you want these things then I would politely suggest that you join another party.

So what is socialism, if it can’t be anything? Ask 100 socialists, or Labour Party members, and will get 100 answers. For me, it boils down to two things: skepticism of markets and striving for greater equality.

Striving for greater equality

Skepticism is of markets means markets needs to be managed if we want to ensure a fair distribution of goods and services. Free markets that are allowed to run riot don’t do this. We can see this from the housing market in the UK to the healthcare market in the USA. It’s worth remembering that even New Labour intervened in markets (such as the minimum wage in the labour market) to ensure some measure of fairness.

The Labour Party should also strive for greater equality. This means, where possible, looking for ways to make society fairer and for wealth and power to be more evenly distributed. This is vague and it's up to the leadership candidates to flesh out what this will mean in practice, but it summarises the core of what Labour should be.

The commitment to strive for ever greater equality needs to be social as well as economic. The Labour Party needs to be committed to social liberalism, equality and inclusivity. Labour must stand up against racism, homophobia, sexism, Islamophobia and other forms of prejudice. This includes Antisemitism, which Labour has been lacklustre in standing up against.

Personal and social freedom

The Labour Party should stand for personal and social freedom, whilst also acknowledging the limits of these freedoms. For example, the Labour Party should defend free speech, whilst acknowledging that it's not okay to racially abuse someone. In striving for greater fairness, Labour should stand for a more economically equal society and one free from prejudice.

There is plenty of room for a broad church within what I have outlined above. My personal views are a lot more prescriptive than what I have described above. I'm happy for there to be people in the Labour Party who I disagree with me, as long as we’re all committed to the broad goals outlined above.

Labour needs to remember it's a broad church to end the civil war that is keeping us from office. We need fewer purity tests and more inclusiveness. Debate is a positive thing, but factional warfare is not. Labour needs to stand for a fairer, more equal, less hateful society, which we can be achieved if we stand together.

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The problem with progressive patriotism

January 21, 2020 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

Here I stand at the nadir of the Labour Party. A party that is still reeling from the body blow it received last year. The party feels lost, unsure of itself, confused about what it wants to be or who it speaks for. Now is a time of great uncertainty. Any of a number of new Labour Parties could emerge from this period of reflection.

One major cause of the defeat Labour suffered in December was that it was not seen as patriotic enough. This caused many past Labour voters to move over to the flag-waving Tories. This division is cultural and not policy-based. It stems from a feeling that Labour was not proud, but ashamed, of our country. One possible Labour Party that could emerge from this confusion is one that is much more patriotic.

Many prominent Labour figures have ideas about how Labour could be more patriotic. From Rebecca Long Bailey’s progressive patriotism to John Healey saying that “the most successful movements of the left have shown pride in the national flag”.

Alienated by patriotism

Personally, I find patriotism alienating. As I don't follow football (or any sport) and I’m not keen on war, I don't associate the health of the nation with who we’ve beaten recently. I feel that patriotism is meant for someone else, like a pub covered in St George's flags: it's not inherently violent, but it's not very welcoming to me. I have tried to think of a type of patriotism that makes me feel comfortable. Maybe something closer to Brit Pop? Although, a vision of patriotism that celebrates the coolness of the music scene of large cities seems like a distant prospect.

I’m not alone in feeling this. Patriotism makes lots of people really uncomfortable. I’m worried that some voters will be alienated by Labour’s newfound love of the flag. Granted, many of these Labour supporters voted for Jeremy Corbyn and I can see why many leadership candidates are not well disposed to that wing of the party. However, I’m worried Labour is taking these voters for granted.

I also have questions about how progressive patriotism (for the want of a better catch-all term) will work. Gary Young has raised the issue of whether Stormzy fits into this idea of patriotism. Is wearing a Union Jack stab-proof vest patriotic? Are his criticisms of Britain something that the newly patriotic Labour Party wants to engage with or dismiss as something only of interest to middle-class London metropolitans and not of value to real people?

Does progressive patriotism allow space for people to criticise patriotism, like Stormzy does? Will legitimate concerns about patriotism, such as the fact that it can promote a rose-tinted view of our country's colonial history, be heard? Is the British Empire something for progressive patriots to celebrate or criticise? Probably both, but selling that nuance to an electorate with increasingly short attention spans will be difficult.

What is regressive patriotism?

If progressive patriotism sums up everything that is good about patriotism, then what is regressive patriotism? What is bad patriotism? Xenophobic nationalism, obviously I hear you say. The BNP. The EDL. Tommy Robinson. UKIP waving the flag while spreading disinformation about migrants with HIV. All this is clearly bad and the Labour Party must be critical of it, but where is the line? Where does patriotism become regressive patriotism?

Is it regressive patriotism to want to reduce immigration? Is it bad patriotism to be worried about the growing number of Polish shops or Mosques? I would say that it is, to all of the above, but is the Labour Party prepared to make the argument that it's patriotic to want more immigration? Can Labour convince people that it loves the country whilst the country changes into something that many self-described patriots are uncomfortable with (i.e. more multicultural and less white)?

For progressive patriotism to work, our understanding of regressive patriotism needs to be more than just “people waving the flag with Nazi tattoos are bad, everyone else waving the flag is good.” It needs to engage with the fact that some people who say that they don’t like the changes in their communities or feel alienated by London, really mean that they don’t like the number and prominence of black and brown people these days.

Subtle regressive patriotism

Patriotism can be hostile towards people (migrants and people born in Britain alike) without being explicitly racist. When this occurs it’s subtler than an explicit racist using the flag to justify their racism. It could come down to tone of voice or context in which patriotism is being invoked. It could be in the way that “the people” in British people are defined. Regressive patriotism declares that some people are not properly British, without being explicitly racist.

The people who experience this subtler form of regressive patriotism are more likely to not be white, not have a British ancient, and not be a Christian or an atheist. We need to take different people's different experiences of patriotism into account when we state what is and is not progressive patriotism. I'm worried that a person of colour or a migrant’s concerns about patriotism (arriving from how they have experienced patriotism, which is different to how others experience it) might be dismissed as a metropolitan liberals’ aversion to patriotism, or not understanding patriotism, or simply just being “too sensitive.”

The direction of the Labour Party

Labour needs to change to win, that much is clear. Labour can't help the homeless, those struggling on zero-hour contracts or children in poverty unless we start winning. However, I’m worried that progressive patriotism is a sign that Labour is moving away from the values that I want a Labour government to embody. Labour needs to win, but it must not turn its back on opposing xenophobia and social conservatism in order to do it.

If Labour is to embrace patriotism in order to better appeal to the voters it lost, then what other important positions will be dropped if they’re seen as unpatriotic? Being skeptical about getting involved in foreign wars? Tackling inequality? Stopping the environment emergency? How do we patriotically stand up for communities that have been over-policed?

Progressive patronising

Labour also cannot simply just wave the flag to win back the voters it has lost. Progressive patriotism could become progressive patronising, if it isn't a broader cultural change across the party to meet voters in lost constituencies where they are. Being thought of as patriotic involves than just listening to people from small towns or northern constituencies that have abandoned Labour. If Labour wants to be patriotic it needs to do more than say it’s patriotic; it needs to be patriotic in a way that people recognise.

Labour needs to do something to win back the voters that have been lost. Progressive patriotism may be a way to do this, but Labour must not alienate one group of voters in the rush to embrace another. For progressive patriotism to be a success (or any project aimed at making Labour more patriotic) it will need spaced for a nuanced criticism of patriotism that takes into account a wide range of people's experiences of patriotism.

January 21, 2020 /Alastair J R Ball
The crisis in Labour
Comment
Labour Party.jpg

What should Labour do next?

December 26, 2019 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour, Satire

I’m just starting to sober up after a week of Christmas boozing and drowning my sorrows after last Thursday’s catastrophe. In this brief moment of clarity I wanted to get some notes down on what the fuck Labour does next. We have many options, none of them certain to work, so let's review them.

Win back the white working-class?

White working class people in small towns aren’t voting Labour anymore. This isn’t a problem caused by Jeremy Corbyn or unique to the UK, however the election shows that it’s particularly acute right here, right now. 

The Labour Party was founded as the political representatives of the working class and whatever we were doing in the last election was not representing the views of the working class. There's no way we can win the support of the working class to form a government to tackle the problems of housing, social care, education, etc. whilst also telling working class people that they're stupid and racist. That's neither accurate nor a good strategy.

The obvious solution is to go full Blue Labour, i.e. find a Labour leader who is pro-Brexit, anti-immigration, happy to do speeches in front of the St George’s Cross and willing to indulge people in their casual suspicion of foreigners and benefits claimants in order to win back the support of the voters that the Tories just won, which allowed them to demolish Labour's red wall.

I guess in this scenario people like me, i.e. metropolitan, university educated, under 40, craft beer drinking (I’m literally writing this in the Brixton Craft Beer Co while drinking a pint of Earl Grey IPA), vegan burger eating, podcast listening, liberal socialists are just supposed to go fuck ourselves. Or we’re supposed to vote for a Labour leader who says “people are right to be concerned about how much Polish they hear on the bus” because the candidate for the other side has even more contempt for us. I call this the Joe Biden strategy: vote for this awful person because he might win and he’s less awful than the right wing candidate.

Of course there are those who think that Labour is remiss for not representing the views of the white, Northern man drinking Ruddles Best in a Wetherspoons, who thinks most Muslims aren’t properly British, immigrants are taking our jobs and not working them (to be fair that guy was from East London like me), that London is a fallen city because they made the mistake of being tolerant and that the measure of a strong leader is the number of countries they're willing to reduce to nuclear ash in a fit of pique. (If this sounds overly reductive, I just described myself as vegan despite loving meat because it fits my personal stereotype).

To the charge of Labour not representing lazy Northern stereotypes: you’re probably right, but the issue with politicians who pander to popular prejudices in order to educate people is that for some reason they never get around to educating people out of their prejudices but are really keen on the pandering. All this means I'm not keen on the above.

Being very pro-EU?

An alternative view is that Labour should be more anti-Brexit and pro-EU. Jeremy Corbyn was at best lukewarm warm to the EU and it cost him votes. 16.1 million votes is more than enough to form a government so being the party of the people opposed to Boris Johnson’s plan to literally drive a forklift through our economy is not a bad strategy, as everyone likes the guy at a party who said “I told you so” after a badly planned, drunken chinese lantern launch results in a car being set on fire. (I know this from personal experience.)

Seriously, there is a lot to be said for being socially liberal, open (whatever that means, but I think you know, wink wink), pro-business in a sort of “unfettered capitalism is bad but surely not everyone who wants to start a company is awful” sort of way. Also the alliance of people who hate Brexit + people who hate the Tories is a strong one.

On the other hand there are easier ways to hand the right-wing papers the perfect chance to paint the Labour Party as the enemies of ordinary, decent, salt-of-the-Earth people. Having John McDonnell urinate on The Cenotaph for one. This position would go down well with the #FBPE crowd, (an excellent bunch of people who think that everyone not gagging to make Lord Andrew Adonis leader of the Labour Party is vaguely suspect) but I'm not sure who else it wins over. Many Remainers voted for Boris and his very hard Brexit.

There are not enough people living in the right places for Labour to win an election under First Past the Post as a Remain Party. Most Remainers are clustered in cities where Labour is already strong and not in the towns Labour needs to win. Also, most people who endorse the idea of going back to 1997 usually talk about being realistic in their offering, meeting voters where they are and doing what it takes to win. Reconciling this with opposing the result of a referendum frankly doesn’t make sense. So making Labour a Remain party is not going to work.

Some horrible combination of the above

Doing full Blue Labour or being a strongly Remain party are both good ideals, what we’re likely to get is the crappiest execution of them. Just like Corbyn is the crap execution of every Owen Jones column ever written, what we’re likely to get next will be the crap version of whatever we want. In our heads, a speech that acknowledges people’s concerns about immigration whilst also accepting the crucial role that immigrants play in our society may sound like a transcendent Jed Bartlet monologue, but it will actually sound like a politician giving a vague politician answer that pleases no-one whilst said politician simultaneously trips up over their own shoes.

If there was a smooth operator in the Labour Party who had the pop culture cool of Tony Blair, whilst also having the dogged principles of Clement Attlee, the intellectual clout of Gordon Brown and the media savvy of Harold Wilson they would have come to the fore by now. Wanting Keir Starmer to be that person doesn’t make it true. The Labour Party isn’t well organised enough to suppress a brilliant leader if they existed. Please remember that whatever you want from a Labour leader in your imagination you’ll get the Tesco Value version of that vision, and like Tesco’s value toilet paper, it will fall apart under use. I speak from literal and metaphorical experience.

Don’t get me wrong, I would love the Labour Party to get good at politics again. I just want to inform those who think that the solution to Labour’s current woes is to make a full throated defence of Britain’s EU membership, whilst also fighting and winning a culture war in Britain’s Small towns that this won’t work and the amount of glue they’ve sniffing is doing some bad to their brains.

What should Labour do next?

Whoever we choose as the next Labour leader will get monstered anyway. We could find the blandest, most inoffensive, loveable children’s TV presenter and the right-wing media will convince everyone that they’re a dangerous Marxist who wants to nationalise your Gran, whilst also being a feminist culture warrior who wants to make your dad your mum, replace the Queen with Sandi Toksvig and spend their entire time in government apologising for the British Empire. The Labour Party could make Alan Sugar leader and some people would still think he’s dangerously left-wing.

If anyone wants to be Labour leader given everything I have said, then fair play to them. I don’t want to do it. If someone really thinks they can thread the needle of working-class Labour heartland, metropolitan liberals and swing voters whilst also taking on the right-wing media establishment then they’re welcome to have a crack at it.

What we shouldn’t go for is someone who really appeals to one part of the coalition and believe the rest should just fall in line because they should. We tried that and it didn’t go so well. Just because the metropolitan liberals have had a crack winning power by doing things that they like and being rude about people who think differently, doesn’t mean it’s now time for someone else to piss off a different part of the Labour coalition by ignoring them.

It’s not simple enough just do Blue Labour, or just be pro-EU, or just being a sensible centrist, or just be a socialist. Labour needs to appeal simultaneously to lots of different people in lots of different places to win power and it’s time we started reckoning with the complexities of that. So, as I have said before ,let’s hear some ideas of how we get out of his hole. That’s what Labour should do now.

Labour Party picture taken by Andrew Skudder and used under creative commons.

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December 26, 2019 /Alastair J R Ball
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Labour Party in parliament.jpg

Keeping an open mind on the next Labour leader

December 19, 2019 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

The next leader of the Labour party will walk into a staggeringly difficult job. They will be tasked with grappling with why Labour lost so badly, how to hold the party together, and working towards being able to win an election again. Labour members like myself owe it to anyone running for the position to keep an open mind and give them a fair hearing.

There have already been accusations that those of us on the party’s left simply want ‘continuity Corbynisn’ – to plough on as if the defeat hadn’t happened. This may be true of some, but it is not representative. I have seen more self-awareness and soul-searching over the past few days than ‘one more heave’ naivety. Articles from prominent left wing commentators such as Richard Seymour and Gary Younge have shown humility, reflection, and willingness to own the defeat. The same goes for the Twitter feeds of Corbynistas like Ash Sarkar and Owen Jones.

To move forward together, all wings of the party need to go into listening mode and be willing to explore and discuss big ideas. This isn’t a comfortable time for the left, and neither should it be. In that spirit, I am willing to listen seriously to any potential candidate for the job, whether they come from the left of the party or not, as long as they meet three preconditions.

Acknowledge left wing members

Any candidate will need to accept the existence of, and be ready to engage with, the large proportion of party members who supported Corbyn’s leadership.

This doesn’t mean shying away from criticising Corbyn’s record. Neither does it mean they cannot call out abusive or anti-Semitic behaviour among a minority of left wing members. Both of these are necessary. But what I will not accept is tarring all left wing members with the same brush, or writing us off as a ‘cult’. This has never been fair, and it does plenty of decent people a disservice.

Candidates should also acknowledge that the predominantly young members who joined the party in the last couple of years, many of whom put time and effort into campaigning for Labour, are an asset – not a liability. Momentum mobilised many more activists than would otherwise have been the case and does not deserve to be denigrated for it.

In a ‘broad church’ we need to respect each other. That cuts both ways; there must be no return to the systematic exclusion of the left of the Blair years.

Be willing to seriously analyse the defeat and the way forward

This is the opposite of relying on pithy, simplistic explanations that suit factional narratives. The truth is that we don’t have all of the answers yet. That process will take time, honesty and openness. It isn’t enough to blame only Corbyn, Brexit, the media, the manifesto, ‘Workington Man’ or any other single factor for the defeat. It’s far more complex than that.

Candidates should also look at the longer-term fracturing of the party’s electoral coalition and, more importantly, how it may be reconstructed. What strategy might bridge the increasing cultural divide between older, socially conservative ex-Labour voters in the North and Midlands, and socially liberal, anti-Brexit young people?

The former group, the retired and soon-to-retire baby boomers, are electorally powerful due to their numbers, so working out strategies to appeal to them is unavoidable. However, a tilt towards social conservatism (as typified by the half-baked ‘Blue Labour’ idea) is not a solution. It would alienate Labour’s young supporters who, after all, are the party’s future. We’ve heard enough dog whistles during this campaign from the Tories; the last thing we need is Labour to add their own. You cannot out-Tory the Tories, and I don’t want to see Labour try. Aside from any moral considerations, doing so is a sticking-plaster, not a solution. No more ‘controls on immigration’ on mugs, in other words.

No candidate has the answers to these structural, even existential, questions yet. We ought to be highly suspicious of anyone that claims to. What Labour needs is a wide-reaching debate in good faith, as difficult as that might be at the moment. Not an incriminating blame game that obscures the complexity of the problems.

Prioritise the climate crisis

The impending climate emergency isn’t going to wait another five years for Labour to get its act together. Time to act is running out fast, and an incoming Labour leader would need to be ready to provide strong opposition on this issue with immediate effect.

Anyone who is willing to seriously prioritise this deserves consideration. Sadly, Labour’s defeat means they are not implementing the New Green Deal as I write this. The young people who overwhelmingly voted for them face a future in a warmer, less stable world. The party owe it to them to at least keep the issue on the agenda, and not allow the Tories to get away with inaction.

Equally, a candidate throwing the climate under the bus because ex-Labour Tory voters are perceived as not caring about it represents a moral failing that I would be unable to see beyond, regardless of what else the candidate stands for.

A starting off point

These three criteria are intended as a reasonable jumping off point – not a comprehensive wish list. I could certainly produce a much longer wish list of what I’d prefer the next leader to be like, but that is not the point we’re at. The left needs to focus on listening and reflecting – not demanding – right now. It’s also too early to get into policy territory just yet. That ought to be the end of the process, not the beginning.

There are plenty of other possible preconditions that spring to mind. Many would agree that the next leader should be female – it’s shameful that Labour have never elected one. Others would say it must be someone from outside of London, or who took a certain position on Brexit. Personally, my instinctive preference is for a woman candidate, from the left of the party, who supported Corbyn and Remain.

But preferences are not preconditions. As the candidates begin to throw their hats into this unenviable ring, I will remain open minded and give fair consideration to anyone who can meet the above three criteria, whether they are from ‘my’ wing of the party or not. I sincerely hope the rest of the left will do the same.

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December 19, 2019 /Alastair J R Ball
Labour leadership contest
The crisis in Labour
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Corbyn.jpg

The end of the Corbyn project

December 15, 2019 by Alastair J R Ball in 2019 election, The crisis in Labour

The results are in and it’s the worst result for Labour since 1983. Labour have been all but wiped out in Scotland and pounded to dust in England and Wales. Although he didn’t quite win a landslide, Boris Johnson will go down in history as a huge winner for the Tory Party.

It’s not easy for me to write those words as someone who has been a Labour Party member since they were 18. The next words are harder to write, but they need to be said: Jeremy Corbyn is to blame for this defeat.

On the evening of the election I was happy with what Labour was offering policy wise, but I had my concerns about Corbyn’s leadership and whether he could hold together Labour’s electoral coalition. It turns out those concerns were well placed as they led to a huge Labour defeat.

Owning the result

On the left we need to be clear: this is not the fault of the hostile media or the electorate being stupid. This historic defeat was caused by Corbyn’s massive unpopularity. This was especially a problem in the working-class areas of the North and Midlands where the Tories won safe Labour seats. Many people were strongly opposed to the idea that Corbyn should be Prime Minister.

Corbyn didn’t adequately explain his vision for a fairer society. It’s a vision I supported. More money for schools and hospitals, tackling homelessness and the looming environmental disaster. What’s not to like? The problem was that despite voters wanting all these things, Corbyn couldn’t convince them that he could deliver them. Corbyn also failed to explain his position on Brexit (a position arrived at after a painful long period of dithering). He also failed to deal with antisemitism in the Labour Party, was not seen patriotic enough and failed to deal with issues that many people from his activism for peace.

We must be clear: because of this failure, there will be another five years of Tory rule at least. Five more years of NHS underfunding. Five more years of cuts to schools, social care and local government. Five crucial years to do something about the environment emergency that will be wasted. People will die because of the failure of the Labour Party on Thursday.

The broader picture

Generally this election was a complete shitshow on all accounts. The Tories lied and spread fake news (such as a totally made up story about a Labour activist punching a Tory). Many media outlets repeated these fake stories without scrutiny.

There was insufficient scrutiny of what the parties were actually offering. Johnson’s Brexit plan is the most significant change to our national economy since 1945, yet he was able to present it as business as usual. He also plans to completely change our economy by the end of next year, whilst also cutting or maintaining tax rates and reducing the deficit. Again there was a massive failure to scrutinise this series of contradictory, overly optimistic pledges. Just because I feel I should hang my head in shame right now doesn’t mean that there aren’t a lot of other people who need to take a good long hard look in the mirror and ask themselves whether it’s wise to report a serial liar’s words without scrutiny.

Whilst I’m on this diatribe of things that look awful in retrospect: moving Labour to a stronger Remain position was a terrible idea. Many seats that voted to Leave have now voted Tory. Now that taboo has been broken it will be much easier to do again in the future. Labour Remainers who pushed for this policy change share some responsibility for the defeat and will be duly rewarded with Johnson’s very hard Brexit.

Speaking of Brexit: Labour MPs really should have voted through Teresa May’s slightly softer Brexit and got the issue done with before the election. Hindsight is 20/20 I know, but voting down May’s deal has ultimately led to the certainty of a harder Brexit and a massive Tory majority.

Coalition collapse

The Tories have used Brexit to crowbar apart the traditional Labour coalition. Brexit has created a fissure between Labour Leavers and Remainers and now Johnson has used it to turn the fissure into a chasm, maybe even a schism. This would have been a problem for any Labour leader, and it will be the chief problem for the new leader.

The final collapse of the traditional Labour coalition of working and middle class lefties is not a problem that began with Corbyn or Brexit. It was a problem for Ed Miliband in 2015 and partly lead to his defeat, although Corbyn has made it worse (or at least it has worsened under his watch). However, this coalition breakdown is a problem across the western world and can be seen distinctly in America and Germany too.

Corbyn became Labour leader in 2015 partly because of the collapse of this coalition. After Cameron’s unexpected majority no-one knew what to do. Moving to the left was an unknown quantity at the time and therefore a potential solution. Now that Corbyn has lost, Labour is back to facing the 2015 conundrum: what do we do when our traditional voters are moving in different directions? How do we hold the coalition together? What’s the best Brexit stance to take (there are still lots of people strongly opposed to Brexit)? There are no clear answers to these questions.

What happens next?

What happens next? Right now, I don’t know. I’m still coming to terms with the result. I’m interested to hear from any prospective Labour Party leaders who have answers to the above questions. They need to be seriously engaged with, in a way that hasn’t happened since 2015.

What I won’t support is “let’s do centrism because centrism always wins”. That’s not an answer to Brexit as most centrists I know are strongly opposed to Brexit and making Labour an anti-Brexit party doesn’t seem like the best way to win back Leave voting seats. Also, can centrism unite working class people in small towns and metropolitan liberals? Are centrists pro-free movement? Are they in favour a Green New deal? Do they want to get involved in the culture war? Simply saying “let’s do centrism” doesn’t answer these questions.

Personal reflection

For myself, a time a personal reflection will follow. I was wrong to support Corbyn for so long. He should have gone earlier if this disaster was to be averted. Again, hindsight is 20/20.

I still believe in the policies I have always believed in. What I call socialism. In the short term, more money for schools and hospitals. Less inequality, child poverty, homeless and environmental collapse. In the long term, moving away from a market-based economy to something fairer that gives people more of a say in their lives and is less dominated by entrenched social power. Nothing that I want has changed.

I’m thinking about the best way to achieve these things. Maybe first past the post means the binary nature of UK partisan politics will always be hostile to proper left policies. Maybe our minimalist proposition needs to be more minimalist. Maybe the left needs to be in people’s communities more and on their social media less.

Like the questions above I don’t currently have answers to these questions. However, a defeat of this magnitude should give us all pause for serious thought. That’s the only way we’ll win the future.

Picture of Jeremy Corbyn taken by Garry Knight and used under creative commons.

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December 15, 2019 /Alastair J R Ball
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Brexit.jpg

A Labour split is good news for the Tories

February 18, 2019 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

So it finally happened. After all the talk, it’s shit or get off the pot time. In this case the pot is the Labour Party and 7 MPs have decided to shit on it or get off it. At this point the metaphor breaks down.

To tell the truth, I’m not sad, surprised or angry. Some MPs have clearly been apoplectic with rage since Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader. This is partly because he changed the party’s direction and partly because his election stopped the rise of some MPs through the party’s ranks. 

As a socialist, I want a left-wing Labour Party that will raise taxes on the rich, stop NHS privatisation, nationalise the railways, spend more on benefits and build more council houses. If some centrist MPs don’t want this and would prefer to be in a party that Alan Sugar wants to belong to, then I can show them where the exit is.

I wish Chuka Umunna and his pals all the best for his future. There’s no need to yell traitor or splitter or turn into the Judean People’s Front over this. I hope this will be an amicable break up. A conscious uncoupling. The electorate will settle this, one way or the other.

It’s too early to tell what will happen. Will this be an SDP version two? Something more? Or as much of a wet fish as when two Conservative MPs defected to UKIP and promptly lost their seats? The SDP managed to get 35 MPs to come with them over a period of months, and the number of MPs that join this Independent Group will depend on how many current Labour MPs feel threatened by deselection. That will all depend on how the Labour leadership handles this.

The odds aren’t good that this break away will work. The First Past The Post electoral system means even if the Independent Group get lots of votes, it might not translate into many seats. The SDP won 7,780,949 votes to Labour’s 8,456,934 in 1983 and ended up with 23 seats against Labour’s 209. The SDP also had two years to prepare for an election. If Brexit causes an election in March, will this new party, that doesn’t have a name yet, be ready for it?

Have they thought through all the implications of this break away? For example, what policy platform will they stand on? I guess it will be anti-Brexit, but Umunna, for example, has made comments about immigration that are unlikely to appeal to Europhiles. Will they be pro-austerity? What will their position on gender recognition be? I don’t think there is a huge constituency for a socially liberal, economically neo-liberal party. Outside the few people who read the Economist, but also think that Apu in the Simpsons is problematic.

Another question is: will they join with other Labour castaways? Will they admit the pro-Brexit Frank Field? Or John Woodcock who is accused of sexual harassment? Or Jared O’Mara who is accused of making misogynist and homophonic comments?

Will they join up with the Lib Dems? As Umunna and friends weren’t happy in Corbyn’s choir, will they want to be backing singers for Vince Cable? Why would Cable, who already runs a party, want to play second fiddle in Chuka Umunna’s Tony Blair cover band? The sort of person who launched a new party, rather than standing for Labour leader, doesn’t strike me as the sort of person who would stand quietly at the back while someone else set the tune. 

There’s also the fact that this new party managed to launch with a broken website, so I’m not putting much faith in their organisation skills. There was a brief time when users could choose to agree or do nothing to the suggested principles on the Independent Group’s website. As there was no submit button on page, that error didn’t matter anyway. Then there was Angela Smith describing BAME people as “a funny tinge”.

I don’t doubt that their objections to Corbyn and the direction he has taken Labour in are genuine. I’m sure they see Corbyn’s economic and foreign policy as bad tactically and not in the UK’s interest. I don’t doubt that these MPs are opposed to anti-semitism in Labour either, something Corbyn clearly has a blind spot on. However, you can’t dismiss that disliking the left, and being unable stand the fact that we are in charge, were a factor in the split.

As they’re unlikely to win power, a vote for this Independent Group will only be a protest vote at best. Corbyn has a serious chance of winning the PM and stopping the damage the Tories are doing. This is ironic for a group who called Corbyn’s Labour a protest vote.

Personally, after sticking with the party through Blair’s embrace of Thatcherism, the Iraq War, and everything else, I can’t help but felt let down that they couldn’t handle a few years under Corbyn. I guess they felt that even if Corbyn went, Labour members were too stupid to embrace Umunna and Co’s clearly superior ideas so they have to go directly to the electorate. Again, I wish them well with this. We’ll see how it all pans out.

The most likely outcome of this is splitting the left vote and helping the Tories stay in power. Some people will think that is an acceptable cost to stop Corbyn becoming prime minister. I guess we’ll see how many people really want a government that isn’t Labour, Tory or Lib Dem, far-left or far-right.  

I wouldn’t split Labour to stop another Blaire becoming Prime Minister, as much as my views are to the left of his. The worst Labour government is preferable to the best Tory government. What this shows is that some Labour MPs believe that there are some Tory governments that are preferable to some Labour governments. If you believe that, then maybe you shouldn’t be in the Labour Party. So best of luck to them.

Exit sign picture taken by Paul Wilkinson and used under creative commons.

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February 18, 2019 /Alastair J R Ball
The crisis in Labour
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What I have learned about the Labour Party in the last five months?

December 04, 2016 by Alastair J R Ball in The crisis in Labour

I started this series of blog posts examining the ongoing crisis in the Labour by saying that I cannot remember a time when the Labour Party was in such a sorry state. The party’s prospects have not improved in the last five months. Recent research shows that trust in Labour is low. 66% of voters do not trust Labour and this is nothing to do with the Iraq War or Blair’s more authoritarian moments - as some have suggested. The problem is also nothing to do with the poorly planned and poorly executed coup that the PLP engaged in after the EU referendum. The problem with Labour is that the electorate does not like Jeremy Corbyn, and that Labour is seen as too soft on spending, benefits and immigration.

All wings and groups within the Labour Party need to face up the situation the whole party is in. Labour has a lot to do to win back the trust of the voters and to stand a chance of governing again in the next 15 years. The Party needs to address the issues of spending, benefits and immigration or else face a crushing defeat to the Tories. If you are relaxed about being defeated by the Tories - or intent on making excuses if this happens - then you should not be in the Labour Party. The Labour Party is not the Green Party; it is not a party of protest but a party of government and a government that changes things for the better.

The problems go much deeper than who should lead the party. Labour’s old base of support that won three general elections has collapsed and cannot be easily won back. This problem cannot be easily solved by repositioning the party to be in line with the public on immigration, spending and benefits; it can only be solved by finding a compelling vision for Labour. Once we have this, then we can discuss who should be leader.

The party needs unity until it can answer some key questions. Most importantly: what is the Labour Party for? Is it only for winning elections and undoing the worst of the damage the Tories have done, as the so called Clause One socialists would argue? If so, then maybe we need to be cynical about positioning the party. For all my reservations about Corbyn and his leadership, this is not what I want to happen.

I want the Labour Party to tackle real social issues such as the housing crisis, rising hostility to immigration, falling productivity, inequality and the economic problems caused by technological change. I want the party to help people abandoned by the Tory government. I want the party to offer a real, credible alternative to what we have now. This is what I want the Labour Party to be for.

For now, Corbyn is the party leader and all members need to accept that (unless they have a candidate who can beat him in a leadership election). However, Corbyn’s brand of 80s throwback politics will not offer the vision Labour needs to win an election.

Time has moved on. Across the world in the 20th century, left wing movements were all telling different versions of the same story. When Communism fell we lost that story, because we lost the belief that we were moving towards a better, more left wing future. Communism may have been a bastardisation of the dreams of many on the left, but it still represented the view that we can move forwards to something else. When Communism fell the word “progressive” became meaningless. What followed was the technocratic management politics of “what works”. Now “what works” has stopped working - the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit show that - and we need something new.

The left need to tell a new story for the 21st century. It needs to be about a future where the benefits of technology are shared between people and not hoarded by a few. A future where we work less and not more. A future where we rethink the role of the state. What can it do for us? What should it do for us? A future where we rethink ourselves as actors within society. What can we do for the world? What would be good?

We need a new narrative for the 21st century. The Conservatives are moving to the right socially to push out UKIP and the left economically to attract moderate Labour voters. In doing so they are redefining the centre ground as aggressively anti-immigration. They are targeting Labour’s former industrial heartland as they think they can use immigration to attract people alienated by Corbyn. At the same time the Tories are exposing the naked racism of Brexit, for example: 59% of voters support making companies report how many foreign workers they employ (Source: YouGov / 05 Oct). I have a horrible feeling that the Tory plan will work as the public is deeply opposed to immigration. Even half of all remain votes think immigration is too high and should come down. This is very electorally fertile ground that the Tories are moving in on.

Labour will face problems whatever it does. It is faced with general apathy towards politicians, a hostile right-leaning and pro-Brexit press, the rise of the far-right and bad memories of the Blair/Brown era. Economic stagnation and declining living standards present a new challenge to the party. Labour needs a policy for growth, a policy for housing, a policy for the NHS and a plan for Brexit (or a plan for stopping it). Labour must rise to these challenges.

The Labour Party will have to adapt to meet these challenges. We need a new way of discussing the left. Social democracy has run out of ideas to tackle our economic and political problems, so we need to start talking about it in new ways. We need to think about costs and value in terms of social good and not simply economic good. We need to look forwards and not backwards. Our new narrative needs to be informed by the past, however it cannot be dictated by it. As Abraham Lincoln said: “The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew and act anew.”

There is some good news that this is already happening. At the most recent Labour Party conference, a Momentum fringe event showed some of the promise that Labour needs. Labour needs more discussion and more ideas. We need an answer to what is Labour for in the 21st century? If we can get a good answer to this question then we can start the fight back against the Tories and the resurgent far-right. If Labour cannot, then the party will be pulled apart by infighting and then swept under the carpet of history. I do not want this to happen and I am ready to fight for the Labour Party.

Picture of Jeremy Corbyn taken by Garry Knight and used under creative commons.

December 04, 2016 /Alastair J R Ball
The crisis in Labour
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