Ed Davey has been elected the new Lib Dem leader. The man who previously lost in a runoff to Jo Swinson (remember when the chronically misinformed thought that she would be the next Prime Minister?) is now in charge of Britain’s third party and, who knows, might one day be the doormat junior partner in a coalition government. Although he’s more likely to be remembered the same way the last four Lib Dem leaders are, as hardly worthy of a footnote in history. 

What can we learn from Davey’s victory? We can infer that the Lib Dem’s members are happy with their party being thought of as in the middle of the political spectrum. Their hope is that, as Labour have become more left-wing in recent years and the Tories have become more right-wing, they can win over more voters who feel abandoned in the centre.

Leaving Brexit behind

It also shows that they are moving away from an ultra-Remain position and returning to the Nick Clegg era of appealing to centrists. During the years of uncertainty over Brexit, the Lib Dems adopted the extreme position of stopping Brexit without another referendum if they became the government.

I call this extreme because it’s anti-democratic, as it’s possible to have a stable majority government with around a third of the vote, as Labour managed in 2005 when Tony Blair won 403 seats with 35.2% of votes cast. This Brexit stance was so extreme that I’m surprised that it didn’t receive more criticism. I’m also surprised that it was taken as a serious possibility by anyone.

The road not chosen

To win the unenviable position of being Lib Dem leader, Davey had to beat Layla Moran who, had she been chosen as leader, would have indicated that the Lib Dems wanted to attack Labour from the left, perhaps in a return to the Charles Kennedy days when the Lib Dems were more radical than Labour on some issues.

The argument is that Labour cannot afford to be too socially liberal. Having a metropolitan, middle-class position on issues such as patriotism and identity, and not connecting with how the majority of the country saw these issues, was seen as a major failure of Jeremy Corbyn. If Keir Starmer wants to win back the Red Wall voters who switched to the Conservatives in 2019, then he may need to at least pay lip service to views on these issues that will put him at odds with the average young, middle-class city dweller.

A left-wing culture war?

Had Moran won, it would raise an interesting question: do the Lib Dems think they could start a culture war from the left? Could they adopt positions on statue removal or defunding the police that are to the left of where the general public are, but in line with the social values of the average Corbyn supporting Labour voter? Would attempts lure away young voters put pressure on Kier Starmer, who has to walk an awkward tightrope of trying to keep both socially liberal and socially conservative Labour voters happy?

I think this was unlikely to work. One reason why the right-wing culture war has been so successful is that right-wing newspapers and right-wing social media pick up any story that could enrage social conservatives and amplify it until leading politicians have to respond. I think the Lib Dems will be unwilling to find many publications willing to support this.

Even the left-leaning media in Britain is not sympathetic enough to the rights of trans-people, ethnic minorities or the young to give a left-wing culture war the energy it needs to succeed. Nor are they ideologically committed enough to the Liberal Democrats (or Labour for that matter) to consistently amplify stories that are useful to them.

Happy in the centre

Also, the Lib Dems tried the approach of adopting a position out of step with the majority, but highly in line with young social liberals, on Brexit and it didn’t work. Mainly because their record in the coalition still makes them toxic to these voters. This approach failed even when supported by a left-leaning media that was in favour of stopping Brexit.

Being in the middle makes more sense for the Lib Dems. In 2019 they came second in many Labour and Tory seats and are unlikely to win back the young any time soon. Choosing Davey as a leader and adopting this positioning makes sense.

Two Sirs and Boris Johnson

I don’t think Keir Starmer or Boris Johnson will be losing any sleep now that Ed Davey has become Lib Dem leader. He isn’t a threat to either of them. Although Boris Johnson must be annoyed that both opposition leaders are Knights and he’s not.

If the Lib Dems think there are loads of centrist voters to win over, and that will propel them back to the level where they can sell out all their values to the Tories for another electoral reform referendum that will be lost, then good luck to them. I don’t think this centre ground exists or is stable enough to achieve this, but I have been wrong in the past.

Broadly, I don’t see much changing from the Lib Dems. Moran would have certainly been a more interesting choice for leader, but perhaps a period of stability with clearly defined left, right and centre parties is what the country needs after three years of slow-motion chaos.

"ed davey speech 01" by Liberal Democrats is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0